EUV lithography scanners
One company on earth builds them, the queue is measured in years, and no second source is in progress. Every leading-edge wafer in the world is downstream of one factory.
Machine · NL · Unverified lead
Chokepoints
The constraints that are not materials — and often are the tighter ones.
A material is only one kind of chokepoint. For the compute and power curves it is frequently not the binding one: a lithography tool with a single supplier, packaging capacity allocated years before it is used, a transformer order book, an interconnection queue, and process knowledge that does not transfer when a competitor buys the same equipment all gate the same three curves — and none of them appears on a periodic table.
They enter coverage on exactly the tests a material does: does it move a curve, and does it genuinely gate it. The unit of coverage was never the substance. It is the constraint.
Each row claims what the node is and why it gates, and nothing about capacity, market share or price — the same rule as the producer map, for the same reason. Rows read “unverified lead” until an analyst attaches a primary source.
The universe so far
- Materials
- 15
- Non-material chokepoints
- 14
- Kinds of node
- 4
Machines, processes, companies and people.
Verification
Chokepoint rows confirmed against a primary source0%
0 / 14
Newer than the producer map and further from finished. Published anyway, because a lead somebody can correct is worth more than a note nobody sees.
Compute per joule
Feedstock, lithography consumables, thermal materials, and the firms that make them — what decides how much computation a watt can buy.
EUV projection optics
The mirror systems inside the scanner are polished to a tolerance one supplier has ever achieved. It is a chokepoint inside a chokepoint, and the constraint is know-how, not capacity.
Process · DE · Unverified lead
Advanced packaging capacity
Accelerator output is gated by how many dies can be packaged onto an interposer, not by wafer starts. Capacity is allocated years ahead, which makes the allocation itself the scarce good.
Process · TW KR US · Unverified lead
High-bandwidth memory stacking yield
Three suppliers, and the yield on stacking and bonding is knowledge that does not transfer when someone else buys the same equipment.
Process · KR US · Unverified lead
Leading-edge foundry capacity
A handful of fabs can run the newest node at volume. New capacity is a multi-year, multi-billion commitment, so the supply curve cannot answer a demand shock.
Company · TW KR US · Unverified lead
Photoresist formulation
The chemistry is qualified per process per fab and is overwhelmingly Japanese. Substituting a resist is a re-qualification programme, not a purchase.
Process · JP · Unverified lead
Semiconductor process engineers
The constraint nobody can buy. A fab ramp moves at the speed of people who have done it before, which is why capacity announcements and capacity slip on different clocks.
People · Not geographic · Unverified lead
Joules delivered
Transformer steel, conductors, superconducting tape, the cryogens that keep them cold, and the interconnect queue. A datacentre that cannot be energised is a shed.
Large power transformer slots
Lead times run to several years, and a datacentre cannot be energised without one. This gates more announced compute today than chip supply does.
Machine · KR DE JP US · Unverified lead
Grid interconnection queues
Not a material, not a machine, and frequently the binding constraint: a multi-year administrative queue between a signed site and a live megawatt.
Process · Not geographic · Unverified lead
Heavy-duty gas turbine order books
The fastest route to firm power at scale, and the order books are effectively sold out. A slot is worth more than the turbine price implies.
Machine · US DE · Unverified lead
High-voltage cable and switchgear
The unglamorous half of energisation. Same multi-year lead times as transformers, same inability to respond quickly to a demand shock.
Machine · DE IT KR · Unverified lead
Actuation
Permanent-magnet feed, precision drives, additive manufacturing — the step where a model stops advising and starts doing physical work.
Rare-earth magnet sintering
Even where the metal is mined elsewhere, sintering and grain-boundary diffusion are concentrated in one jurisdiction. The chokepoint sits downstream of the mine, where most coverage is not looking.
Process · CN · Unverified lead
Precision reduction drives
Harmonic and cycloidal drives set what a robot joint can do. Few qualified suppliers, and the tolerances are decades of accumulated manufacturing practice.
Company · JP · Unverified lead
Robot-grade encoders and force sensors
Closing the loop is what separates a manipulator from an arm. Narrow supply, and qualification is per-application.
Company · JP DE · Unverified lead