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Material · Actuation & Robotics · CN AU MY US CA EE FR

Didymium (Nd-Pr) metal, magnet feed

The rare-earth metal blend that makes strong permanent magnets, and therefore most electric motors.

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Severity
How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →
How hard it binds, 0 to 12
When it bites
Now
judged 2026-09-15
Evidence
2 of 6 verified
6 maker rows

Robotics & autonomyEnergySpace & launchMining & materialsMachinery & componentsWork on it: roles and trainingReport an error on GitHub

01Key numbers

dated, each linked to its source

Every series on every bottleneck — filter, compare and download.

02Why it holds things up

Mining is diversifying; separation and metal-making have not. The chokepoint moved downstream of the mine, which is where most published coverage still is not looking.

Grade that ships · Nd-Pr metal ingot, 75/25 nominal, ≥99% RE.

Part of the process · Actuation, which takes years, at the magnet to loosen once somebody decides to.

03Severity

judged 2026-09-15 · a judgement, not a measurement

How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code → / 12

How few suppliers qualify
Estimate, not a measurementMining is spreading; separation and metal-making are still almost entirely Chinese, and licensed. Ferrite and induction motors substitute at a cost.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
How hard to replace
Estimate, not a measurementMining is spreading; separation and metal-making are still almost entirely Chinese, and licensed. Ferrite and induction motors substitute at a cost.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
Decision to new capacity
Estimate, not a measurementMining is spreading; separation and metal-making are still almost entirely Chinese, and licensed. Ferrite and induction motors substitute at a cost.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
Can the buyer walk away
Estimate, not a measurementMining is spreading; separation and metal-making are still almost entirely Chinese, and licensed. Ferrite and induction motors substitute at a cost.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3

Mining is spreading; separation and metal-making are still almost entirely Chinese, and licensed. Ferrite and induction motors substitute at a cost.

04How much, and where

world total 390,000 tonnes (2024, estimated)

What these figures count · ALL rare earths, mined, as rare-earth-oxide equivalent — not this element, and not separated metal. Read the stage before the number: this is mined output.

  • ChinaSourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024Open the source → (2024)

    How this is computedA place's annual production ÷ the published world total, same unit and year.Method →Code → of mined world output · reserves SourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024Open the source → · about How this is computedPublished reserves ÷ annual production, same place, unit and year.Method →Code → at this rate

  • United States of AmericaSourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024Open the source → (2024)

    How this is computedA place's annual production ÷ the published world total, same unit and year.Method →Code → of mined world output · reserves SourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024Open the source → · about How this is computedPublished reserves ÷ annual production, same place, unit and year.Method →Code → at this rate

  • MyanmarSourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024, estimated by the sourceOpen the source → (2024, est.)

    How this is computedA place's annual production ÷ the published world total, same unit and year.Method →Code → of mined world output

  • AustraliaSourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024, estimated by the sourceOpen the source → (2024, est.)

    How this is computedA place's annual production ÷ the published world total, same unit and year.Method →Code → of mined world output · reserves SourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024Open the source → · about How this is computedPublished reserves ÷ annual production, same place, unit and year.Method →Code → at this rate

Concentration · How this is computedSum of the squares of each producer’s share of world output (0–1).Method →Code → on the Herfindahl index across 4 recorded producers, where 1.00 is a single supplier. This is arithmetic from the figures above, not the judgement shown under severity — the two are worth comparing.

All rare earths, mined, as REO equivalent. Separation into individual elements and metal-making are downstream, far more concentrated, and not counted here. Figures are read 2026-09-17 from the source ↗. Reserves are not resources: what is economic to extract, not what exists.

05Who makes it

2 verified of 6 rows

4 of 4 unsourced rows have pages the sourcing engine found that nobody has checked yet.

OrganisationStepEvidence
China Northern Rare Earth600111 CHRefineVerified source ↗
Shenghe Resources600392 CHRefineVerified source ↗
Lynas Rare EarthsLYC AURefine
8 found, unchecked
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  • What are Rare Earths? - Lynas Rare Earths ↗

    “What are Rare Earths? - Lynas Rare Earths About Lynas Rare Earths Our Leadership Team What are Rare Earths? Corporate Governance Our Values What are Rare Earths? Rare earths are a group of 15 elements in the periodic table known as the Lanthanide series. Rare”

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  • Lynas Rare Earths Limited (LYSCF) Aktienkurs, Nachrichten, Kurs und Verlauf – Yahoo Finanzen ↗

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  • Our Products - Lynas Rare Earths ↗

    “Our Products - Lynas Rare Earths Our Products Our Products Product R&D US Markets Our Products Rare Earths are critical inputs to global megatrends that will shape economies and consumer behaviour over the next decade. These trends include sustainabl”

  • Lynas Rare Earths Aktie (LYC) | Aktienkurs » AU000000LYC6 | wallstreetONLINE ↗

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  • Lynas Rare Earths-Aktie +5%: Ist das das Signal zum Einstieg? ↗

    “Lynas Rare Earths-Aktie +5%: Ist das das Signal zum Einstieg? stock.adobe.com Lynas Rare Earths-Aktie +5%: Ist das das Signal zum Einstieg? Wachsende Bedeutung Peter Wolf-Karnitschnig 18.09.26, 10:32 Erst gestern ist die Lynas Rare Earth”

  • Home - Lynas Rare Earths ↗

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MP MaterialsMP USMine / extract
6 found, unchecked
Neo Performance MaterialsNEO CNConvert
6 found, unchecked
  • Estonia Magnet Plant Opening - Neo Performance Materials ↗

    “Estonia Magnet Plant Opening - Neo Performance Materials Skip to content Grand Opening of Rare Earth Magnet Facility in Europe Estonia On September 19th, 2025, Neo Performance Materials held a grand opening celebration for its new rare earth magnet manufacturing facilities”

  • News - Neo Performance Materials ↗

    “’s revenues are derived from products that did not exist five years ago. News Neo prioritizes product innovation: between 15-20% of Neo’s revenues are derived from products that did not exist five years ago. News Releases Neo Performance Materials Signs MOU with Rainbow Rare Earths for Magnet Rare Earth Offtake from the Phalaborwa Project September 24, 2026 Neo to provide rare earth separation technology to Rainbow’s Phalaborwa project, which will recover rare”

  • Neo Partners with Carester to Advance European Supply Chain ↗

    “Neo Partners with Carester to Advance European Supply Chain Skip to content Neo Performance Materials Partners with Carester to Advance Its European Rare Earth Supply Chain August 31, 2026 PDF Version Multi-year agreement secures heavy rare earth oxides for Neo’s magnet manufacturing in exchange for recycled scrap proce”

  • Neo Performance Materials Signs MOU with Rainbow Rare Earths for Magnet Rare Earth Offtake from the Phalaborwa Project - Neo Performance Materials ↗

    “Neo Performance Materials Signs MOU with Rainbow Rare Earths for Magnet Rare Earth Offtake from the Phalaborwa Project - Neo Performance Materials Skip to content Neo Performance Materials Signs MOU with Rainbow Rare Earths for Magnet Rare Earth”

  • Neo Successfully Commissions Heavy Rare Earth Separation Production Line in Europe - Neo Performance Materials ↗

    “Neo Successfully Commissions Heavy Rare Earth Separation Production Line in Europe - Neo Performance Materials Skip to content Neo Successfully Commissions Heavy Rare Earth Separation Production Line in Europe April 10, 2026 TORONTO, Canada, April 10, 2026 – Neo Performance Materials Inc. (“ Neo ” or the “ Company ”) (TSX:NEO;”

  • Neo Performance Materials - Advanced Industrial Materials ↗

    “lectrification, industrial automation, consumer electronics, energy-efficient lighting, air and water pollution control, superalloys, and many others. Learn more about Neo in our latest Investor Presentation . Latest News Neo Performance Materials Signs MOU with Rainbow Rare Earths for Magnet Rare Earth Offtake from the Phalaborwa Project Read More » September 24, 2026 Neo Performance Materials Advances to Commercial Production at its European Magnet Facility R”

SolvaySOLB FPRefine
4 found, unchecked

06What it rests on, and what rests on it

each row quotes the page it rests on

Depended on by

  • Rare-earth magnet sintering
    “The metals most commonly used in magnet production are didymium (NdPr), a mix of Nd and Pr, pure Nd, and ferrodysprosium (DyFe), with Tb metal used less frequently.”

    energy.gov · primary source

A recorded dependency is a sentence, not a share, a volume or a contract. Walk it on a portfolio →

07Rules that govern it

All policy →

08What would remove it

  • Rare-earth-lean and rare-earth-free motorsEstimate, not a measurementGrain-boundary diffusion is standard practice and rare-earth-free traction motors are in production; the trade-off is mass and efficiency, not feasibility.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15Supporting source → · Qualified and entering production

    Ferrite and wound-rotor designs avoid the rare-earth magnet entirely at a cost in size and weight.

All science →

09Science pipeline

36 papers, preprints and grants collected, unreviewed
  1. Research34 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)+3 (Computed: Items first collected in the last 7 days whose publication or award date is within the last 30 days.) new
  2. Lab2 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  3. Pilot0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  4. Early0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  5. Scale0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)

judged, with a citation claimed, no citationNumber: papers, preprints and grants the feeds collected — unreviewed

The full pipeline, by stage →

10What has happened

1 dated
  1. 2026-09-10
    TightensPolicyCN

    China’s November export controls will test whether rare-earth refining and recycling outside it can scale.

    fastmarkets.com ↗secondary source

    The sentence that says so

    “For decades, China has been the dominant supplier of the rare earths required to produce sintered neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets: neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr), dysprosium and terbium.”

All events →

11What this holds up

2 loops
  • Materials qualificationone turn: Years

    Worst judgement on this loop: How this is computedThe highest severity score among the bottlenecks recorded as gates on the loop.Method →Code →, judged 2026-09-15

  • Printed and machined partsone turn: Hours to days

    Worst judgement on this loop: How this is computedThe highest severity score among the bottlenecks recorded as gates on the loop.Method →Code →, judged 2026-09-15

A loop is one design, build and measure turn. Severity is a dated judgement on a 0–12 scale, not a measurement, and the judgements are not added together — the figure shown is the worst single one.

Discussion

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