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Process · CN

Rare-earth magnet sintering

Turning rare-earth powder into a finished magnet. Even where the metal is mined elsewhere, this step is Chinese.

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Severity
How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →
How hard it binds, 0 to 12
When it bites
Now
judged 2026-09-15
Evidence
Unverified
1 maker rows

01Key numbers

dated, each linked to its source
  • Trade volume · ChinaChina rare-earth permanent magnet exports, monthlySourcedSMM (Shanghai Metals Market) citing China customs · Aug 2026Open the source → tAug 2026How this is computedThe latest value in a series minus the value before it, divided by the earlier value, same series and unit.5,375.1 (Jul 2026) → 5,010 (Aug 2026).Method →Code → vs Jul 2026 · tightens
    China rare-earth permanent magnet exports, monthly, t, Mar 2025 to Aug 2026. Every value is listed in the table below.
    PeriodValueSource
    Aug 2026SourcedSMM (Shanghai Metals Market) citing China customs · 2026-09-20Open the source → tSMM (Shanghai Metals Market) citing China customs ↗ secondary reportAccording to customs data, China's rare earth permanent magnet exports in August 2026 were 5,010 mt, down 6% MoM and down 18% YoY.
    Jul 2026SourcedBlooming Global citing China customs · 2026-08-21Open the source → tBlooming Global citing China customs ↗ secondary reportIn July 2026, China exported 5,375.1 tonnes of rare earth permanent magnetsHS 85051110
    Jun 2025SourcedSMM (Shanghai Metals Market) citing China customs · 2025-07-21Open the source → tSMM (Shanghai Metals Market) citing China customs ↗ secondary reportChina's rare earth magnet exports showed significant changes in June, with the total volume reaching 3,188 mt, a substantial increase of 157.5% compared to the 1,238 mt in May.
    May 2025SourcedSMM (Shanghai Metals Market) citing China customs · 2025-07-21Open the source → tSMM (Shanghai Metals Market) citing China customs ↗ secondary reportChina's rare earth magnet exports showed significant changes in June, with the total volume reaching 3,188 mt, a substantial increase of 157.5% compared to the 1,238 mt in May.
    Mar 2025SourcedSMM (Shanghai Metals Market) citing China customs · 2025-04-22Open the source → tSMM (Shanghai Metals Market) citing China customs ↗ secondary reportAccording to data from the General Administration of Customs, rare earth permanent magnet exports in March reached approximately 5,325 mt, up 49% MoM and 27% YoY.

    Read from the sources Read from the source by an agent; quote matched mechanically against the fetched page; not yet reviewed by a person, 2026-09-24. Each value links the page it came from and quotes the sentence that carries it.

  • Trade volume · China -> USChina rare-earth permanent magnet exports to US, monthlySourcedBlooming Global citing China customs · Jul 2026Open the source → tJul 2026How this is computedThe latest value in a series minus the value before it, divided by the earlier value, same series and unit.352.8 (Jun 2025) → 647.3 (Jul 2026).Method →Code → vs Jun 2025 · loosens
    China rare-earth permanent magnet exports to US, monthly, t, Jun 2025 to Jul 2026. Every value is listed in the table below.
    PeriodValueSource
    Jul 2026SourcedBlooming Global citing China customs · 2026-08-21Open the source → tBlooming Global citing China customs ↗ secondary reportChina's rare earth magnet exports to the United States reached 647.3 tonnes in July 2026, the highest level since October 2025 and a new record for the month of July specifically.
    Jun 2025SourcedSMM (Shanghai Metals Market) citing China customs · 2025-07-21Open the source → tSMM (Shanghai Metals Market) citing China customs ↗ secondary reportNotably, China's rare earth magnet exports to the US surged sharply to 352.8 mt in June, a 660% increase from May.

    Read from the sources Read from the source by an agent; quote matched mechanically against the fetched page; not yet reviewed by a person, 2026-09-24. Each value links the page it came from and quotes the sentence that carries it.

  • Trade volume · ChinaChina rare-earth permanent magnet exportsSourcedSMM (Shanghai Metals Market) · 2025Open the source → t2025How this is computedThe latest value in a series minus the value before it, divided by the earlier value, same series and unit.58,142 (2024) → 57,397 (2025).Method →Code → vs 2024 · flat
    China rare-earth permanent magnet exports, t, 2022 to 2025. Every value is listed in the table below.
    PeriodValueSource
    2025SourcedSMM (Shanghai Metals Market) · 2026-04-28Open the source → tSMM (Shanghai Metals Market) ↗ secondary reportAffected by China's April export controls on medium and heavy rare earths like Dysprosium and Terbium, total annual exports fell back to 57,397 tons.annual total
    2024SourcedSMM (Shanghai Metals Market) · 2026-04-28Open the source → tSMM (Shanghai Metals Market) ↗ secondary reportDriven by the integration effect of the China Rare Earth Group and the recovery of overseas demand, total annual exports climbed to a peak of 58,142 tons.annual total
    2023SourcedSMM (Shanghai Metals Market) · 2026-04-28Open the source → tSMM (Shanghai Metals Market) ↗ secondary reportEntering 2023, influenced by the European and American "de-risking" strategies, total exports briefly fell to 52,575 tons, yet structural changes had already occurredannual total
    2022SourcedSMM (Shanghai Metals Market) · 2026-04-28Open the source → tSMM (Shanghai Metals Market) ↗ secondary reportIn 2022, as the global supply chain was still in the post-pandemic recovery phase, total exports remained at a relatively high level of 53,109 tons.annual total

    Read from the sources Read from the source by an agent; quote matched mechanically against the fetched page; not yet reviewed by a person, 2026-09-24. Each value links the page it came from and quotes the sentence that carries it.

  • Trade volume · China -> USChina rare-earth permanent magnet exports to USSourcedSMM (Shanghai Metals Market) · 2025Open the source → t2025How this is computedThe latest value in a series minus the value before it, divided by the earlier value, same series and unit.7,446 (2024) → 5,933 (2025).Method →Code → vs 2024 · tightens
    China rare-earth permanent magnet exports to US, t, 2023 to 2025. Every value is listed in the table below.
    PeriodValueSource
    2025SourcedSMM (Shanghai Metals Market) · 2026-04-28Open the source → tSMM (Shanghai Metals Market) ↗ secondary reportNotably, imports to the US market plummeted to 5,933 tons, a significant year-on-year contraction, directly reflecting the blocking effect of the export licensing system on trade flows.annual total
    2024SourcedSMM (Shanghai Metals Market) · 2026-04-28Open the source → tSMM (Shanghai Metals Market) ↗ secondary reportGermany, with imports of 9,915 tons, became the core engine of the European market, and US imports also increased to 7,446 tons.annual total
    2023SourcedSMM (Shanghai Metals Market) · 2026-04-28Open the source → tSMM (Shanghai Metals Market) ↗ secondary reportmeanwhile, US imports remained at 7,308 tons, reflecting the rigid dependence of its high-end manufacturing on Chinese magnetic materials.annual total

    Read from the sources Read from the source by an agent; quote matched mechanically against the fetched page; not yet reviewed by a person, 2026-09-24. Each value links the page it came from and quotes the sentence that carries it.

Every series on every bottleneck — filter, compare and download.

02Why it holds things up

Even where the metal is mined elsewhere, sintering and grain-boundary diffusion are concentrated in one jurisdiction. The chokepoint sits downstream of the mine, where most coverage is not looking.

Part of the process · Actuation, which takes years, at the magnet to loosen once somebody decides to.

03Severity

judged 2026-09-15 · a judgement, not a measurement

How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code → / 12

How few suppliers qualify
Estimate, not a measurementDownstream of the mine and concentrated in one jurisdiction. Where the 2025 export controls actually bit.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
How hard to replace
Estimate, not a measurementDownstream of the mine and concentrated in one jurisdiction. Where the 2025 export controls actually bit.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
Decision to new capacity
Estimate, not a measurementDownstream of the mine and concentrated in one jurisdiction. Where the 2025 export controls actually bit.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
Can the buyer walk away
Estimate, not a measurementDownstream of the mine and concentrated in one jurisdiction. Where the 2025 export controls actually bit.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3

Downstream of the mine and concentrated in one jurisdiction. Where the 2025 export controls actually bit.

04What it rests on, and what rests on it

each row quotes the page it rests on

Depends on

  • Didymium (Nd-Pr) metal, magnet feed
    “The metals most commonly used in magnet production are didymium (NdPr), a mix of Nd and Pr, pure Nd, and ferrodysprosium (DyFe), with Tb metal used less frequently.”

    energy.gov · primary source

  • Dysprosium metal
    “heavy REs such as dysprosium (Dy) and terbium (Tb) are used primarily in sintered magnets to improve their resistance to demagnetization at temperatures above 120 degrees C.”

    energy.gov · primary source

A recorded dependency is a sentence, not a share, a volume or a contract. Walk it on a portfolio →

05Rules that govern it

All policy →

06What would remove it

No candidate relief has been written up for this one yet.

07Science pipeline

72 papers, preprints and grants collected, unreviewed
  1. Research66 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)+6 (Computed: Items first collected in the last 7 days whose publication or award date is within the last 30 days.) new
  2. Lab6 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  3. Pilot0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  4. Early0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  5. Scale0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)

judged, with a citation claimed, no citationNumber: papers, preprints and grants the feeds collected — unreviewed

The full pipeline, by stage →

08What we have predicted

  • 2026-09-15open until 2028-03-31

    China will still require export licences for dysprosium and terbium at the end of 2027, and no non-Chinese source will supply more than a tenth of world heavy rare-earth separation capacity.

    Settled by · China's published control list as it stands at the end of 2027, plus capacity figures from a body such as the US Geological Survey or a named producer's own reporting.

All calls →

09What has happened

1 dated
  1. 2026-09-10
    TightensPolicyCN

    China’s November export controls will test whether rare-earth refining and recycling outside it can scale.

    fastmarkets.com ↗secondary source

    The sentence that says so

    “For decades, China has been the dominant supplier of the rare earths required to produce sintered neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets: neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr), dysprosium and terbium.”

All events →

10What this holds up

1 loop
  • Printed and machined partsone turn: Hours to days

    Worst judgement on this loop: How this is computedThe highest severity score among the bottlenecks recorded as gates on the loop.Method →Code →, judged 2026-09-15

A loop is one design, build and measure turn. Severity is a dated judgement on a 0–12 scale, not a measurement, and the judgements are not added together — the figure shown is the worst single one.

Discussion

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