Grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES)

• Capacity · USNumber of US domestic GOES producers1SourcedUS DOE final rule, distribution transformer standards (Federal Register 2024-07480) · 2024Open the source →Check this number with Ask count2024

  Period	Value	Source
  2024	1SourcedUS DOE final rule, distribution transformer standards (Federal Register 2024-07480) · 2024-04-22Open the source →Check this number with Ask count	US DOE final rule, distribution transformer standards (Federal Register 2024-07480) ↗ primaryDOE notes there is one domestic producer of amorphous steel and one domestic producer of GOES.Cleveland-Cliffs Butler Works (PA).

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• Capacity · company: JSW JFE Electrical Steel (India)JSW JFE Electrical Steel (India) GOES capacity350,000SourcedJFE Steel (press release) · 2030Open the source →Check this number with Ask tonnes/year2030 · target or forecast+600%How this is computedThe latest value in a series minus the value before it, divided by the earlier value, same series and unit.50,000 (Aug 2025) → 350,000 (2030).Method →Code →Check this number with Ask vs Aug 2025

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  100,000

  200,000

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  50,000 tonnes/yearAug 2025JFE Steel (press release) ↗350,000 tonnes/year2030JFE Steel (press release) ↗

  Aug 20252030

  Period	Value	Source
  2030	350,000SourcedJFE Steel (press release) · 2025-08-04Open the source →Check this number with Ask tonnes/year target or forecast	JFE Steel (press release) ↗ primaryIn this expansion plan, we will double the manufacturing capacity of the J2ES Vijayanagar site from the initial plan, to 100,000 tonnes per year and increase the current manufacturing capacity of the J2ES Nashik site fivefold, from 50,000 tonnes per year to 250,000 tonnes per year. The manufacturing capacity of the J2ES Vijayanagar site and the J2ES Nashik site will be significantly increased to a total of 350,000 tonnes per year.Planned: Vijayanagar 100,000 t/y by 2027, Nashik 250,000 t/y phased 2028-2030.
  Aug 2025	50,000SourcedJFE Steel (press release) · 2025-08-04Open the source →Check this number with Ask tonnes/year	JFE Steel (press release) ↗ primaryIn this expansion plan, we will double the manufacturing capacity of the J2ES Vijayanagar site from the initial plan, to 100,000 tonnes per year and increase the current manufacturing capacity of the J2ES Nashik site fivefold, from 50,000 tonnes per year to 250,000 tonnes per year. The manufacturing capacity of the J2ES Vijayanagar site and the J2ES Nashik site will be significantly increased to a total of 350,000 tonnes per year.Current Nashik capacity 50,000 t/y.

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• Other · USUS electrical steel demand for distribution transformers225,000SourcedUS DOE final rule, distribution transformer standards (Federal Register 2024-07480) · 2024Open the source →Check this number with Ask tonnes/year2024

  Period	Value	Source
  2024	225,000SourcedUS DOE final rule, distribution transformer standards (Federal Register 2024-07480) · 2024-04-22Open the source →Check this number with Ask tonnes/year	US DOE final rule, distribution transformer standards (Federal Register 2024-07480) ↗ primaryThe current domestic demand for electrical steel used in distribution transformers is estimated to be approximately 225,000 metric tons, which is approximately equal to the global capacity for amorphous material.All core steel (GOES + amorphous), DOE estimate.

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• Other · USUS GOES consumption for distribution transformers175,000SourcedUS DOE final rule, distribution transformer standards (Federal Register 2024-07480), citing MTC comment · 2023Open the source →Check this number with Ask tonnes/year2023

  Period	Value	Source
  2023	175,000SourcedUS DOE final rule, distribution transformer standards (Federal Register 2024-07480), citing MTC comment · 2024-04-22Open the source →Check this number with Ask tonnes/year	US DOE final rule, distribution transformer standards (Federal Register 2024-07480), citing MTC comment ↗ primaryMTC provided US import and consumption data for GOES and commented that U.S. consumption of GOES for distribution transformers is approximately 175K MT.Stakeholder (MTC) estimate recorded in DOE rule; "175K MT".

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• Other · USGOES share of total LPT manufacturing cost25SourcedUS DOE (Electric Grid Supply Chain Review: LPTs and HVDC, citing Commerce 2020 survey) · 2020Open the source →Check this number with Ask %2020

  Period	Value	Source
  2020	25SourcedUS DOE (Electric Grid Supply Chain Review: LPTs and HVDC, citing Commerce 2020 survey) · 2022-02Open the source →Check this number with Ask %	US DOE (Electric Grid Supply Chain Review: LPTs and HVDC, citing Commerce 2020 survey) ↗ primaryAccording to a 2020 U.S. Department of Commerce survey of 87 domestic manufacturers of LPT components, GOES accounts for about 25 percent of the total manufacturing costs for transformers, while labor accounts for 36 percent of costs on average

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• Other · USShare of US GOES laminations imported88SourcedUS DOE (Electric Grid Supply Chain Review: LPTs and HVDC, citing Commerce 2020) · 2019Open the source →Check this number with Ask %2019

  Period	Value	Source
  2019	88SourcedUS DOE (Electric Grid Supply Chain Review: LPTs and HVDC, citing Commerce 2020) · 2022-02Open the source →Check this number with Ask %	US DOE (Electric Grid Supply Chain Review: LPTs and HVDC, citing Commerce 2020) ↗ primaryThe imports of GOES laminations are approximately 88% with 95% of the imports coming from Canada and Mexico for both wound cores and stacked coresFor wound and stacked cores; 95% of imports from Canada and Mexico.

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Every series on every bottleneck — filter, compare and download.

The binding constraint on datacentre energisation. Large power transformers queue for years, and the core steel behind them is made on a small number of qualified lines.

Grade that ships · M3-class grain-oriented silicon steel, coil, coated.

Part of the process · Energy, which takes years to loosen once somebody decides to.

11How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →Check this number with Ask / 12

Every large transformer needs it, few mills make it, and a mill takes years. The transformer queue is partly a GOES queue.

• 2026-03-27European UnionSlows building

  Safeguard investigation into imports of grain-oriented electrical steel

  Opens the question of whether to restrict imports of the steel that goes inside large power transformers.

  European Commission, DG Trade and Economic Security ↗

All policy →

• Amorphous metal transformer cores9/9Estimate, not a measurementIn production at scale, but only for part of the problem. ABB has sold amorphous metal distribution transformers for two decades; the constraint is applicability rather than maturity, because the lower saturation induction means a larger core cross-section, larger coils and a larger footprint — acceptable on a pole, not on a grid-scale unit.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-18Supporting source →Check this number with Ask · In production at scale

  Every distribution transformer built on amorphous ribbon is one that does not consume GOES — ABB reports about 70 percent lower no-load losses as well. It does not touch the large power transformers in the way: amorphous has lower saturation, so the core must be physically bigger, which is where the substitution stops.

All science →

1. Research32 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)+2 (Computed: Items first collected in the last 7 days whose publication or award date is within the last 30 days.) new
2. Lab2 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
3. Pilot0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
4. Early0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
5. Scale0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)

judged, with a citation claimed, no citationNumber: papers, preprints and grants the feeds collected — unreviewed

• Paper2026-10-01Chemical Engineering Journal0SourcedOpenAlex, as fetchedOpen the source →Check this number with Ask citations

  Amorphous core-shell nanochains enabling radar-infrared compatible stealth at ultrathin thickness via electron transport regulation ↗

  Fundamental research · No laboratory or pilot wording.From OpenAlex · not yet reviewedDOI

• Paper2026-09-17Warwick Research Archive Portal (University of Warwick)0SourcedOpenAlex, as fetchedOpen the source →Check this number with Ask citations

  Investigation of the relationship between electrical steel microstructures with their magnetic properties and the potential for EM sensing and characterisation ↗

  The excellent magnetic properties of non-grain oriented electrical steels (NGOES) arise from a uniform large (approximately 100-150 μm) grain structure with preferred texture, which is developed through hot rolling to coil (HRC), hot band annealing (HBA), cold rolling and final…

  Fundamental research · No laboratory or pilot wording.From OpenAlex · not yet reviewedDOIPDF

• Paper2026-09-04Metals0SourcedOpenAlex, as fetchedOpen the source →Check this number with Ask citations

  Kinetics of Secondary Recrystallization in Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel Based on Grain Size Distribution ↗

  Quasi in situ observations of the early stage of secondary recrystallization in Fe-3.25 wt.% Si high-permeability grain-oriented silicon steel indicate that large matrix grains locally impede the migration of secondary recrystallized grain boundaries. A critical grain-size…

  Northeastern UniversityHangzhou Dianzi University

  Fundamental research · No laboratory or pilot wording.From OpenAlex · not yet reviewedDOI

• Paper2026-09-01Materials Letters X0SourcedOpenAlex, as fetchedOpen the source →Check this number with Ask citations

  Effect of decarburization temperature on the microstructure, texture, and magnetic property of industrial low-temperature grain-oriented silicon steel ↗

  This study systematically investigates the impact of decarburization temperature on the microstructure, texture, and magnetic properties of a 0.23 mm-thick industrial low-temperature grain-oriented (LTGO) silicon steel. It is demonstrated that the decarburization temperature…

  Ansteel (China)University of Science and Technology Beijing

  Fundamental research · No laboratory or pilot wording.From OpenAlex · not yet reviewedDOIPDF

• Paper2026-09-01Materials Characterization0SourcedOpenAlex, as fetchedOpen the source →Check this number with Ask citations

  Revealing orientation-dependent deformation banding and recrystallization in Goss-oriented FeSi single crystals for ultrathin grain-oriented silicon steel processing ↗

  Fundamental research · No laboratory or pilot wording.From OpenAlex · not yet reviewedDOI

The full pipeline, by stage →

• 2026-09-15open until 2028-01-31

  Large power transformer lead times will still be three years or longer at the end of 2027, despite the capacity expansions announced through 2026.

  Settled by · Quoted lead times for a 100 MVA-class unit from at least two major manufacturers or a published industry survey, dated in the last quarter of 2027.

All calls →

• European Investment BankDevelopment bank

  The EU’s own bank, lending long-term for infrastructure, energy networks and industrial capacity that meets EU policy objectives.

  Development bank will not fund · Anything outside its mandate, however commercially sound. It is patient and cheap and narrow, in that order.

• KfWDevelopment bank

  Germany’s promotional bank, funding industrial transformation and energy infrastructure on behalf of the federal government.

A mandate covering the kind of asset that would relieve this row. Not a claim that anyone has funded one, and not advice.

1. 2026-09-14
   NeutralCapacityCN

   ArcelorMittal and China Oriental open a 1.8 Mt/yr electrical steel joint venture in Changzhou; the first phase is non-oriented.

   gmk.center ↗secondary source

   The sentence that says so

   “The total production capacity of the facility in Changzhou will be 1.8 million tonnes of high-quality electrical steel sheets.”

   Check this
2. 2026-03-27
   TightensPolicyEU

   The European Commission opens a safeguard investigation into imports of grain-oriented electrical steel.

   aslgate.com ↗official source

   The sentence that says so

   “on March 27, 2026, the European Commission issued a notice initiating a safeguard investigation on certain Grain-Oriented Electrical Steel (GOES) products.”

   Check this

All events →

• Energyone turn: Months to years

  Worst judgement on this loop: 11 of 12How this is computedThe highest severity score among the bottlenecks recorded as gates on the loop.Method →Code →Check this number with Ask, judged 2026-09-15

• Materials qualificationone turn: Years

  Worst judgement on this loop: 11 of 12How this is computedThe highest severity score among the bottlenecks recorded as gates on the loop.Method →Code →Check this number with Ask, judged 2026-09-15

A loop is one design, build and measure turn. Severity is a dated judgement on a 0–12 scale, not a measurement, and the judgements are not added together — the figure shown is the worst single one.

• Amorphous metal transformer coresrelieved by

  source-backed readiness judgement

• Safeguard investigation into imports of grain-oriented electrical steelgoverned by

  primary source

• Ukrainefound in

  directory join, not a sourced finding

• Germanyfound in

  directory join, not a sourced finding

• Swedenfound in

  directory join, not a sourced finding