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Material · Thermal & Packaging · US KR JP CN

Silicon carbide substrate, 200 mm semi-insulating

A harder-than-silicon crystal used where power and heat are high, such as chargers, motors and radar.

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Severity
How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →
How hard it binds, 0 to 12
When it bites
Later
judged 2026-09-15
Evidence
Verified
6 maker rows

01Key numbers

dated, each linked to its source
  • Other · WorldSICC global share, N-type SiC substratesSourcedSICC company news (citing Fuji Keizai) · 2025Open the source → %2025How this is computedThe latest value in a series minus the value before it, divided by the earlier value, same series and unit.12 (2023) → 27.6 (2025).Method →Code → vs 2023

    Conductive (N-type) and all-type SiC substrates. No dated figure was found for semi-insulating 200 mm substrates specifically.

    SICC global share, N-type SiC substrates, %, 2023 to 2025. Every value is listed in the table below.
    PeriodValueSource
    2025SourcedSICC company news (citing Fuji Keizai) · 2026-03-24Open the source → %SICC company news (citing Fuji Keizai) ↗ primarySICC’s global market share in the N- type S i C substrates rose sharply in 2025, surging from 12% in 2023 to 27.6% and surpassing Wolfspeed.N-type (conductive), not semi-insulating
    2023SourcedSICC company news (citing Fuji Keizai) · 2026-03-24Open the source → %SICC company news (citing Fuji Keizai) ↗ primarySICC’s global market share in the N- type S i C substrates rose sharply in 2025, surging from 12% in 2023 to 27.6% and surpassing Wolfspeed.N-type (conductive), not semi-insulating

    Read from the sources Read from the source by an agent; quote matched mechanically against the fetched page; not yet reviewed by a person, 2026-09-24. Each value links the page it came from and quotes the sentence that carries it.

  • Other · WorldSICC global share, 8-inch (200 mm) SiC substratesSourcedSICC company news (citing Fuji Keizai) · 2025Open the source → %2025

    Conductive (N-type) and all-type SiC substrates. No dated figure was found for semi-insulating 200 mm substrates specifically.

    PeriodValueSource
    2025SourcedSICC company news (citing Fuji Keizai) · 2026-03-24Open the source → %SICC company news (citing Fuji Keizai) ↗ primarythe company achieved a breakthrough in the 8-inch S iC substrate market, capturing a market share of 51.3%, far exceeding other competitors.Company claim citing Fuji Keizai; context is N-type (conductive) substrates, NOT semi-insulating

    Read from the sources Read from the source by an agent; quote matched mechanically against the fetched page; not yet reviewed by a person, 2026-09-24. Each value links the page it came from and quotes the sentence that carries it.

  • Other · WorldSICC global share, 6-inch (150 mm) SiC substratesSourcedSICC company news (citing Fuji Keizai) · 2025Open the source → %2025

    Conductive (N-type) and all-type SiC substrates. No dated figure was found for semi-insulating 200 mm substrates specifically.

    PeriodValueSource
    2025SourcedSICC company news (citing Fuji Keizai) · 2026-03-24Open the source → %SICC company news (citing Fuji Keizai) ↗ primaryin 2025, SICC's global market share of 6-inch products reached 27.5%, surpassing Wolfspeed for the first time.Company claim citing Fuji Keizai

    Read from the sources Read from the source by an agent; quote matched mechanically against the fetched page; not yet reviewed by a person, 2026-09-24. Each value links the page it came from and quotes the sentence that carries it.

Every series on every bottleneck — filter, compare and download.

02Why it holds things up

The 150 mm to 200 mm transition resets everyone’s yield curve at once. Semi-insulating grade is a much smaller field than conductive SiC, and defect density is the gate.

Grade that ships · 200 mm semi-insulating 4H-SiC, micropipe density to specification.

Part of the process · Materials & tools, which takes years, per qualification to loosen once somebody decides to.

03Severity

judged 2026-09-15 · a judgement, not a measurement

How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code → / 12

How few suppliers qualify
Estimate, not a measurementCapacity was overbuilt for automotive; a US wafer line is being liquidated. Not binding; watch for the datacentre power story to reverse it.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
How hard to replace
Estimate, not a measurementCapacity was overbuilt for automotive; a US wafer line is being liquidated. Not binding; watch for the datacentre power story to reverse it.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
Decision to new capacity
Estimate, not a measurementCapacity was overbuilt for automotive; a US wafer line is being liquidated. Not binding; watch for the datacentre power story to reverse it.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
Can the buyer walk away
Estimate, not a measurementCapacity was overbuilt for automotive; a US wafer line is being liquidated. Not binding; watch for the datacentre power story to reverse it.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3

Capacity was overbuilt for automotive; a US wafer line is being liquidated. Not binding; watch for the datacentre power story to reverse it.

04Who makes it

6 verified of 6 rows

05Rules that govern it

No rule has been researched for this one yet.

Policy coverage is being built jurisdiction by jurisdiction.

06What would remove it

  • 200 mm silicon carbide wafersEstimate, not a measurementIn production at several makers and expanding; the market is currently oversupplied rather than short.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15Supporting source → · Qualified and entering production

    The larger wafer is the capacity increase: more die per boule at similar cost.

All science →

07Science pipeline

39 papers, preprints and grants collected, unreviewed
  1. Research35 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  2. Lab3 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  3. Pilot1 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  4. Early0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  5. Scale0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)

judged, with a citation claimed, no citationNumber: papers, preprints and grants the feeds collected — unreviewed

The full pipeline, by stage →

08What we have predicted

  • 2026-09-15open until 2028-01-31

    Silicon carbide substrates will not become a binding constraint before 2028: no sustained shortage, and at least one more Western capacity retrenchment.

    Settled by · Absence of reported allocation or lead-time extension for 150 mm or 200 mm SiC substrates through 2027, plus at least one further announced closure, sale or capacity cut by a Western maker.

All calls →

09Who could fund relief

Is funding the constraint? · Money is not the constraint

Capacity was built ahead of demand that did not arrive, and a maker has been through Chapter 11. More money would make the oversupply worse.

A mandate covering the kind of asset that would relieve this row. Not a claim that anyone has funded one, and not advice.

10What has happened

3 dated
  1. 2026-07-17
    TightensCapacityUS KR

    SK Siltron is liquidating SK Siltron CSS, its US silicon carbide wafer subsidiary, by year end.

    WhoSK Siltron

    thelec.net ↗official source

    The sentence that says so

    “SK Siltron is proceeding with the liquidation of SK Siltron CSS, its SiC wafer manufacturing subsidiary located in Michigan. The process is expected to be completed by the end of this year.”

  2. 2025-12-03
    LoosensCapacityUS

    Coherent adds 300 mm capability to its silicon carbide platform, citing AI and datacentre power demand.

    WhoCoherent

    coherent.com ↗official source

    The sentence that says so

    “Coherent expands silicon carbide platform with 300mm capability to support growing demand of AI and datacenters.”

  3. 2024-03-26
    LoosensCapacityUS

    Wolfspeed tops out its $5bn silicon carbide materials plant in Siler City, built for 200 mm wafers.

    WhoWolfspeed

    wolfspeed.com ↗official source

    The sentence that says so

    “Wolfspeed currently produces more than 60% of the world’s silicon carbide materials at its Durham, N.C. headquarters, and is engaged in a $6.5 billion capacity expansion effort to dramatically increase production.”

All events →

11What this holds up

2 loops
  • Worst judgement on this loop: How this is computedThe highest severity score among the bottlenecks recorded as gates on the loop.Method →Code →, judged 2026-09-15

  • Circuit boardsone turn: One to two weeks

    Worst judgement on this loop: How this is computedThe highest severity score among the bottlenecks recorded as gates on the loop.Method →Code →, judged 2026-09-15

A loop is one design, build and measure turn. Severity is a dated judgement on a 0–12 scale, not a measurement, and the judgements are not added together — the figure shown is the worst single one.

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