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Process · KZ CA AU NE FR US

Uranium conversion and enrichment

Turning mined uranium into the fuel a reactor can burn. Few states do this, and they do not do it quickly.

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Severity
How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →
How hard it binds, 0 to 12
When it bites
Within 2 years
judged 2026-09-15
Evidence
Unverified
1 maker rows

EnergyPower & gridMining & materialsWork on it: roles and trainingReport an error on GitHub

01Key numbers

dated, each linked to its source

Every series on every bottleneck — filter, compare and download.

02Why it holds things up

Fission fuel is mined, converted and enriched by a handful of states. A reactor without that chain is a building.

Part of the process · Energy, which takes years to loosen once somebody decides to.

03Severity

judged 2026-09-15 · a judgement, not a measurement

How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code → / 12

How few suppliers qualify
Estimate, not a measurementFew converters and enrichers. A reactor announcement is not a fuel-cycle announcement.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
How hard to replace
Estimate, not a measurementFew converters and enrichers. A reactor announcement is not a fuel-cycle announcement.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
Decision to new capacity
Estimate, not a measurementFew converters and enrichers. A reactor announcement is not a fuel-cycle announcement.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
Can the buyer walk away
Estimate, not a measurementFew converters and enrichers. A reactor announcement is not a fuel-cycle announcement.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3

Few converters and enrichers. A reactor announcement is not a fuel-cycle announcement.

04Rules that govern it

No rule has been researched for this one yet.

Policy coverage is being built jurisdiction by jurisdiction.

05What would remove it

No candidate relief has been written up for this one yet.

06Science pipeline

40 papers, preprints and grants collected, unreviewed
  1. Research35 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  2. Lab5 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  3. Pilot0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  4. Early0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  5. Scale0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)

judged, with a citation claimed, no citationNumber: papers, preprints and grants the feeds collected — unreviewed

The full pipeline, by stage →

07What has happened

Nothing recorded about this one yet.

Events are added when a source is read and accepted by hand.

Discussion

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