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Heavy-duty gas turbine order books

The fastest way to add firm power at scale. The largest maker’s order book runs years ahead of what it can build.

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Severity
How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →
How hard it binds, 0 to 12
When it bites
Now
judged 2026-09-15
Evidence
Verified
2 maker rows

EnergyPower & gridMachinery & componentsWork on it: roles and trainingReport an error on GitHub

01Key numbers

dated, each linked to its source

What the text on this page claims, and the number behind it

  • the largest maker’s order book runs years ahead of what it can build Measured

    Was "effectively sold out" and "into the next decade". GE Vernova’s backlog plus slot reservations, in GW, set against the output capacity it states per year. Siemens Energy and MHI publish no comparable GW figures.

    Gas Power equipment backlog + slot reservation agreements: SourcedGE Vernova (Q2 2026 earnings release, SEC 8-K Ex.99)Open the source → GW, 30 Jun 2026GE Vernova annual gas turbine output capacity: SourcedGE Vernova (Q2 2026 earnings release, SEC 8-K Ex.99)Open the source → GW/year, 2030

6 (Computed: Count of dated values in a series, or of series matching the filters, across the committed corpus and the official statistics fetched on schedule.) more series on this bottleneck
  • Backlog · company: GE VernovaPower segment equipment remaining performance obligationSourcedGE Vernova (Q2 2026 Form 10-Q) · 30 Jun 2026Open the source → USD m30 Jun 2026How this is computedThe latest value in a series minus the value before it, divided by the earlier value, same series and unit.24,707 (31 Dec 2025) → 39,261 (30 Jun 2026).Method →Code → vs 31 Dec 2025 · tightens
    Power segment equipment remaining performance obligation, USD m, 31 Dec 2022 to 30 Jun 2026. Every value is listed in the table below.
    0
    10,000
    20,000
    30,000
    40,000
    13,579 USD m31 Dec 2022GE Vernova (2024 Form 10-K) ↗13,636 USD m31 Dec 2023GE Vernova (2025 Form 10-K) ↗12,461 USD m31 Dec 2024GE Vernova (2025 Form 10-K) ↗24,707 USD m31 Dec 2025GE Vernova (2025 Form 10-K) ↗39,261 USD m30 Jun 2026GE Vernova (Q2 2026 Form 10-Q) ↗
    PeriodValueSource
    30 Jun 2026SourcedGE Vernova (Q2 2026 Form 10-Q) · 2026-07-22Open the source → USD mGE Vernova (Q2 2026 Form 10-Q) ↗ primaryRPO June 30, 2026 December 31, 2025 June 30, 2025 Equipment $ 39,261 $ 24,707 $ 16,133Power segment (Gas Power, Nuclear, Hydro, Steam) equipment RPO, $ millions; verbatim table text. Excludes slot reservation agreements.
    31 Dec 2025SourcedGE Vernova (2025 Form 10-K) · 2026-01-29Open the source → USD mGE Vernova (2025 Form 10-K) ↗ primaryGas Turbine Gigawatts 15.3 11.9 13.8 RPO December 31 2025 2024 2023 Equipment $ 24,707 $ 12,461 $ 13,636Power segment (Gas Power, Nuclear, Hydro, Steam) equipment RPO, $ millions; verbatim table text. Excludes slot reservation agreements.
    31 Dec 2024SourcedGE Vernova (2025 Form 10-K) · 2026-01-29Open the source → USD mGE Vernova (2025 Form 10-K) ↗ primaryGas Turbine Gigawatts 15.3 11.9 13.8 RPO December 31 2025 2024 2023 Equipment $ 24,707 $ 12,461 $ 13,636Power segment (Gas Power, Nuclear, Hydro, Steam) equipment RPO, $ millions; verbatim table text. Excludes slot reservation agreements.
    31 Dec 2023SourcedGE Vernova (2025 Form 10-K) · 2026-01-29Open the source → USD mGE Vernova (2025 Form 10-K) ↗ primaryGas Turbine Gigawatts 15.3 11.9 13.8 RPO December 31 2025 2024 2023 Equipment $ 24,707 $ 12,461 $ 13,636Power segment (Gas Power, Nuclear, Hydro, Steam) equipment RPO, $ millions; verbatim table text. Excludes slot reservation agreements.
    31 Dec 2022SourcedGE Vernova (2024 Form 10-K) · 2025-02-06Open the source → USD mGE Vernova (2024 Form 10-K) ↗ primaryGas Turbine Gigawatts 11.9 13.8 11.1 RPO December 31 2024 2023 2022 Equipment $ 12,461 $ 13,636 $ 13,579Power segment (Gas Power, Nuclear, Hydro, Steam) equipment RPO, $ millions; verbatim table text. Excludes slot reservation agreements.

    Read from the sources Read from the source by an agent; quote matched mechanically against the fetched page; not yet reviewed by a person, 2026-09-24. Each value links the page it came from and quotes the sentence that carries it.

    Series pageDownload CSV

  • Orders · company: Mitsubishi Heavy IndustriesMHI large-frame gas turbine ordersSourcedMitsubishi Heavy Industries (FY2025 financial results presentation) · Mar 2026Open the source → unitsMar 2026How this is computedThe latest value in a series minus the value before it, divided by the earlier value, same series and unit.25 (Mar 2025) → 35 (Mar 2026).Method →Code → vs Mar 2025 · tightens
    MHI large-frame gas turbine orders, units, Mar 2025 to Mar 2026. Every value is listed in the table below.
    25
    30
    35
    25 unitsMar 2025Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (GTCC business briefing 2025) ↗35 unitsMar 2026Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (FY2025 financial results presentation) ↗
    PeriodValueSource
    Mar 2026SourcedMitsubishi Heavy Industries (FY2025 financial results presentation) · 2026-05-12Open the source → unitsMitsubishi Heavy Industries (FY2025 financial results presentation) ↗ primaryBooked orders for 35 large frame gas turbines. Order intake significantly exceeded last year's record high, with order backlog surpassing ¥5 tr.Record; previous record FY2024 (25 units). Fiscal year April 2025 to March 2026; placed at its last month.
    Mar 2025SourcedMitsubishi Heavy Industries (GTCC business briefing 2025) · 2025Open the source → unitsMitsubishi Heavy Industries (GTCC business briefing 2025) ↗ primaryDemand has been very strong recently, with orders for 25 units booked in FY2024.Fiscal year April 2024 to March 2025; placed at its last month.

    Read from the sources Read from the source by an agent; quote matched mechanically against the fetched page; not yet reviewed by a person, 2026-09-24. Each value links the page it came from and quotes the sentence that carries it.

    Series pageDownload CSV

  • Orders · company: GE VernovaGas turbine orders (heavy-duty + aeroderivative)SourcedGE Vernova (2025 Form 10-K) · 2025Open the source → GW2025How this is computedThe latest value in a series minus the value before it, divided by the earlier value, same series and unit.20.2 (2024) → 29.8 (2025).Method →Code → vs 2024 · tightens
    Gas turbine orders (heavy-duty + aeroderivative), GW, 2022 to 2025. Every value is listed in the table below.
    0
    10
    20
    30
    9.8 GW2022GE Vernova (2024 Form 10-K) ↗9.5 GW2023GE Vernova (2025 Form 10-K) ↗20.2 GW2024GE Vernova (2025 Form 10-K) ↗29.8 GW2025GE Vernova (2025 Form 10-K) ↗
    PeriodValueSource
    2025SourcedGE Vernova (2025 Form 10-K) · 2026-01-29Open the source → GWGE Vernova (2025 Form 10-K) ↗ primaryOrders in units 2025 2024 2023 Gas Turbines 173 112 93 Heavy-Duty Gas Turbines 110 68 41 HA-Turbines 43 25 8 Aeroderivatives 63 44 52 Gas Turbine Gigawatts 29.8 20.2 9.5Verbatim table row from Power segment MD&A ("Orders in units ... Gas Turbine Gigawatts"), not a sentence.
    2024SourcedGE Vernova (2025 Form 10-K) · 2026-01-29Open the source → GWGE Vernova (2025 Form 10-K) ↗ primaryOrders in units 2025 2024 2023 Gas Turbines 173 112 93 Heavy-Duty Gas Turbines 110 68 41 HA-Turbines 43 25 8 Aeroderivatives 63 44 52 Gas Turbine Gigawatts 29.8 20.2 9.5Verbatim table row from Power segment MD&A ("Orders in units ... Gas Turbine Gigawatts"), not a sentence.
    2023SourcedGE Vernova (2025 Form 10-K) · 2026-01-29Open the source → GWGE Vernova (2025 Form 10-K) ↗ primaryOrders in units 2025 2024 2023 Gas Turbines 173 112 93 Heavy-Duty Gas Turbines 110 68 41 HA-Turbines 43 25 8 Aeroderivatives 63 44 52 Gas Turbine Gigawatts 29.8 20.2 9.5Verbatim table row from Power segment MD&A ("Orders in units ... Gas Turbine Gigawatts"), not a sentence.
    2022SourcedGE Vernova (2024 Form 10-K) · 2025-02-06Open the source → GWGE Vernova (2024 Form 10-K) ↗ primaryOrders in units 2024 2023 2022 Gas Turbines 112 93 92 Heavy-Duty Gas Turbines 68 41 30 HA-Turbines 25 8 9 Aeroderivatives 44 52 62 Gas Turbine Gigawatts 20.2 9.5 9.8Verbatim table row from Power segment MD&A ("Orders in units ... Gas Turbine Gigawatts"), not a sentence.

    Read from the sources Read from the source by an agent; quote matched mechanically against the fetched page; not yet reviewed by a person, 2026-09-24. Each value links the page it came from and quotes the sentence that carries it.

    Series pageDownload CSV

  • Orders · company: GE VernovaHeavy-duty gas turbine ordersSourcedGE Vernova (2025 Form 10-K) · 2025Open the source → units2025How this is computedThe latest value in a series minus the value before it, divided by the earlier value, same series and unit.68 (2024) → 110 (2025).Method →Code → vs 2024 · tightens
    Heavy-duty gas turbine orders, units, 2022 to 2025. Every value is listed in the table below.
    0
    50
    100
    150
    30 units2022GE Vernova (2024 Form 10-K) ↗41 units2023GE Vernova (2025 Form 10-K) ↗68 units2024GE Vernova (2025 Form 10-K) ↗110 units2025GE Vernova (2025 Form 10-K) ↗
    PeriodValueSource
    2025SourcedGE Vernova (2025 Form 10-K) · 2026-01-29Open the source → unitsGE Vernova (2025 Form 10-K) ↗ primaryOrders in units 2025 2024 2023 Gas Turbines 173 112 93 Heavy-Duty Gas Turbines 110 68 41Verbatim table row from Power segment MD&A, not a sentence.
    2024SourcedGE Vernova (2025 Form 10-K) · 2026-01-29Open the source → unitsGE Vernova (2025 Form 10-K) ↗ primaryOrders in units 2025 2024 2023 Gas Turbines 173 112 93 Heavy-Duty Gas Turbines 110 68 41Verbatim table row from Power segment MD&A, not a sentence.
    2023SourcedGE Vernova (2025 Form 10-K) · 2026-01-29Open the source → unitsGE Vernova (2025 Form 10-K) ↗ primaryOrders in units 2025 2024 2023 Gas Turbines 173 112 93 Heavy-Duty Gas Turbines 110 68 41Verbatim table row from Power segment MD&A, not a sentence.
    2022SourcedGE Vernova (2024 Form 10-K) · 2025-02-06Open the source → unitsGE Vernova (2024 Form 10-K) ↗ primaryOrders in units 2024 2023 2022 Gas Turbines 112 93 92 Heavy-Duty Gas Turbines 68 41 30Verbatim table row from Power segment MD&A, not a sentence.

    Read from the sources Read from the source by an agent; quote matched mechanically against the fetched page; not yet reviewed by a person, 2026-09-24. Each value links the page it came from and quotes the sentence that carries it.

    Series pageDownload CSV

  • Backlog · company: Mitsubishi Heavy IndustriesMHI large-frame gas turbine contract backlogSourcedMitsubishi Heavy Industries (GTCC business briefing 2025) · 31 Mar 2025Open the source → units31 Mar 2025How this is computedThe latest value in a series minus the value before it, divided by the earlier value, same series and unit.36 (31 Mar 2024) → 48 (31 Mar 2025).Method →Code → vs 31 Mar 2024 · tightens
    MHI large-frame gas turbine contract backlog, units, 31 Mar 2024 to 31 Mar 2025. Every value is listed in the table below.
    35
    40
    45
    50
    36 units31 Mar 2024Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (GTCC business briefing 2025) ↗48 units31 Mar 2025Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (GTCC business briefing 2025) ↗
    PeriodValueSource
    31 Mar 2025SourcedMitsubishi Heavy Industries (GTCC business briefing 2025) · 2025Open the source → unitsMitsubishi Heavy Industries (GTCC business briefing 2025) ↗ primaryThe contract backlog increased from 36 units at the end of FY2023 to 48 units at the end of FY2024.End of FY2024.
    31 Mar 2024SourcedMitsubishi Heavy Industries (GTCC business briefing 2025) · 2025Open the source → unitsMitsubishi Heavy Industries (GTCC business briefing 2025) ↗ primaryThe contract backlog increased from 36 units at the end of FY2023 to 48 units at the end of FY2024.End of FY2023 (MHI fiscal year ends 31 March).

    Read from the sources Read from the source by an agent; quote matched mechanically against the fetched page; not yet reviewed by a person, 2026-09-24. Each value links the page it came from and quotes the sentence that carries it.

    Series pageDownload CSV

  • Orders · company: Siemens Energy (Gas Services)Siemens Energy Gas Services orders secured in fiscal year to dateSourcedSiemens Energy (Q3 FY2025 results presentation) · 30 Jun 2025Open the source → GW30 Jun 2025
    PeriodValueSource
    30 Jun 2025SourcedSiemens Energy (Q3 FY2025 results presentation) · 2025-08-06Open the source → GWSiemens Energy (Q3 FY2025 results presentation) ↗ primaryGas Services has secured orders for 14 GW in the current fiscal year, 65% of which are for data centers.FY2025 year-to-date (Oct 2024-Jun 2025).

    Read from the sources Read from the source by an agent; quote matched mechanically against the fetched page; not yet reviewed by a person, 2026-09-24. Each value links the page it came from and quotes the sentence that carries it.

    Series pageDownload CSV

Every series on every bottleneck — filter, compare and download.

02Why it holds things up

The fastest route to firm power at scale, and the largest maker’s order book runs years ahead of what it can build. A slot is worth more than the turbine price implies.

Part of the process · Energy, which takes years to loosen once somebody decides to.

03Severity

judged 2026-09-15 · a judgement, not a measurement

How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code → / 12

How few suppliers qualify
Estimate, not a measurementThree makers; the largest has an order book years ahead of what it can build. The fastest route to firm power, and it is full.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
How hard to replace
Estimate, not a measurementThree makers; the largest has an order book years ahead of what it can build. The fastest route to firm power, and it is full.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
Decision to new capacity
Estimate, not a measurementThree makers; the largest has an order book years ahead of what it can build. The fastest route to firm power, and it is full.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
Can the buyer walk away
Estimate, not a measurementThree makers; the largest has an order book years ahead of what it can build. The fastest route to firm power, and it is full.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3

Three makers; the largest has an order book years ahead of what it can build. The fastest route to firm power, and it is full.

04Who makes it

2 verified of 2 rows
OrganisationStepEvidence
GE VernovaGEV USMakes itVerified source ↗
Siemens EnergyENR GRMakes itVerified source ↗

05What it rests on, and what rests on it

each row quotes the page it rests on

Depended on by

  • Anthropic
    “creating strategic reserves of critical grid components and gas turbines”

    anthropic.com · primary source · A policy recommendation. Says gas turbines, not heavy-duty ones.

A recorded dependency is a sentence, not a share, a volume or a contract. Walk it on a portfolio →

06Rules that govern it

No rule has been researched for this one yet.

Policy coverage is being built jurisdiction by jurisdiction.

07What would remove it

  • Small modular reactorsEstimate, not a measurementDesigns are licensed or in licensing and first units are under construction; none is yet delivering power at scale in a Western market.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15Supporting source → · Prototype at meaningful scale

    An alternative source of firm, always-on power that does not queue for a turbine slot.

All science →

08Science pipeline

126 papers, preprints and grants collected, unreviewed
  1. Research90 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)+20 (Computed: Items first collected in the last 7 days whose publication or award date is within the last 30 days.) new
  2. Lab30 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  3. Pilot6 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  4. Early0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  5. Scale0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)

judged, with a citation claimed, no citationNumber: papers, preprints and grants the feeds collected — unreviewed

The full pipeline, by stage →

09What has happened

1 dated
  1. 2026-09-13
    LoosensMilestoneCN MY

    Shanghai Electric wins its first overseas heavy-duty gas turbine order, 500 MW in Malaysia.

    prnewswire.com ↗official source

    The sentence that says so

    “Shanghai Electric Secures First Overseas Heavy-Duty Gas Turbine Order for 500 MW Malaysian Project / Shanghai Electric (SEHK: 02727, SSE: 601727) has achieved a milestone in the high-end overseas energy sector by securing the contract for Unit 3 of the Sarawak Samalaju Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) project in Malaysia.”

All events →

10What this holds up

1 loop
  • Energyone turn: Months to years

    Worst judgement on this loop: How this is computedThe highest severity score among the bottlenecks recorded as gates on the loop.Method →Code →, judged 2026-09-15

A loop is one design, build and measure turn. Severity is a dated judgement on a 0–12 scale, not a measurement, and the judgements are not added together — the figure shown is the worst single one.

Discussion

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