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Material · Lithography & Optics · CN PE ID MY US CA DE

High-purity tin, EUV droplet grade

Ultra-pure tin droplets, vaporised by a laser to make the light that prints the most advanced chips.

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Severity
How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →
How hard it binds, 0 to 12
When it bites
Later
judged 2026-09-15
Evidence
Verified
7 maker rows

AI & computeAdvanced manufacturingSemiconductorsMining & materialsWork on it: roles and trainingReport an error on GitHub

01Key numbers

dated, each linked to its source

Every series on every bottleneck — filter, compare and download.

02Why it holds things up

Tin metal is not scarce; tin at seven nines, qualified for an EUV source, is. The chokepoint is the upgrading step, not the mine.

Grade that ships · 7N (99.99999%) tin, shot or ingot, certificate of analysis per lot.

Part of the process · Materials & tools, which takes years, per qualification to loosen once somebody decides to.

03Severity

judged 2026-09-15 · a judgement, not a measurement

How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code → / 12

How few suppliers qualify
Estimate, not a measurementTin is plentiful; seven-nines upgrading for an EUV source is a few firms. No substitute for the droplet, but supply is not short today.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
How hard to replace
Estimate, not a measurementTin is plentiful; seven-nines upgrading for an EUV source is a few firms. No substitute for the droplet, but supply is not short today.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
Decision to new capacity
Estimate, not a measurementTin is plentiful; seven-nines upgrading for an EUV source is a few firms. No substitute for the droplet, but supply is not short today.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
Can the buyer walk away
Estimate, not a measurementTin is plentiful; seven-nines upgrading for an EUV source is a few firms. No substitute for the droplet, but supply is not short today.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3

Tin is plentiful; seven-nines upgrading for an EUV source is a few firms. No substitute for the droplet, but supply is not short today.

04How much, and where

world total 300,000 tonnes (2024, estimated)

What these figures count · tin content, mined — not the EUV-grade refining the bottleneck is about. Read the stage before the number: this is mined output.

  • ChinaSourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024, estimated by the sourceOpen the source → (2024, est.)

    How this is computedA place's annual production ÷ the published world total, same unit and year.Method →Code → of mined world output · reserves SourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024Open the source → · about How this is computedPublished reserves ÷ annual production, same place, unit and year.Method →Code → at this rate

  • IndonesiaSourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024, estimated by the sourceOpen the source → (2024, est.)

    How this is computedA place's annual production ÷ the published world total, same unit and year.Method →Code → of mined world output

  • MyanmarSourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024, estimated by the sourceOpen the source → (2024, est.)

    How this is computedA place's annual production ÷ the published world total, same unit and year.Method →Code → of mined world output · reserves SourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024Open the source → · about How this is computedPublished reserves ÷ annual production, same place, unit and year.Method →Code → at this rate

  • PeruSourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024Open the source → (2024)

    How this is computedA place's annual production ÷ the published world total, same unit and year.Method →Code → of mined world output · reserves SourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024Open the source → · about How this is computedPublished reserves ÷ annual production, same place, unit and year.Method →Code → at this rate

  • BrazilSourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024Open the source → (2024)

    How this is computedA place's annual production ÷ the published world total, same unit and year.Method →Code → of mined world output · reserves SourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024Open the source → · about How this is computedPublished reserves ÷ annual production, same place, unit and year.Method →Code → at this rate

  • Dem. Rep. CongoSourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024, estimated by the sourceOpen the source → (2024, est.)

    How this is computedA place's annual production ÷ the published world total, same unit and year.Method →Code → of mined world output · reserves SourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024Open the source → · about How this is computedPublished reserves ÷ annual production, same place, unit and year.Method →Code → at this rate

  • BoliviaSourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024Open the source → (2024)

    How this is computedA place's annual production ÷ the published world total, same unit and year.Method →Code → of mined world output · reserves SourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024Open the source → · about How this is computedPublished reserves ÷ annual production, same place, unit and year.Method →Code → at this rate

  • AustraliaSourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024Open the source → (2024)

    How this is computedA place's annual production ÷ the published world total, same unit and year.Method →Code → of mined world output · reserves SourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024Open the source → · about How this is computedPublished reserves ÷ annual production, same place, unit and year.Method →Code → at this rate

Concentration · How this is computedSum of the squares of each producer’s share of world output (0–1).Method →Code → on the Herfindahl index across 8 recorded producers, where 1.00 is a single supplier. This is arithmetic from the figures above, not the judgement shown under severity — the two are worth comparing.

Mined tin content. The bottleneck is refining to seven nines and qualifying it for an EUV source, which this figure does not measure. Figures are read 2026-09-17 from the source ↗. Reserves are not resources: what is economic to extract, not what exists.

05Who makes it

7 verified of 7 rows
OrganisationStepEvidence
Yunnan Tin000960 CHRefineVerified source ↗
MinsurMINSURI1 PERefineVerified source ↗
PT TimahTINS IJRefineVerified source ↗
Malaysia Smelting CorporationNo listing foundRefineVerified source ↗
Indium CorporationNo listing foundConvertVerified source ↗
5N PlusVNP CNConvertVerified source ↗
AurubisNDA GRRecycleVerified source ↗

06What it rests on, and what rests on it

each row quotes the page it rests on

Depended on by

  • EUV lithography scanners
    “molten tin droplets of around 25 microns in diameter are ejected from a generator at 70 meters per second”

    asml.com · primary source

A recorded dependency is a sentence, not a share, a volume or a contract. Walk it on a portfolio →

07Rules that govern it

No rule has been researched for this one yet.

Policy coverage is being built jurisdiction by jurisdiction.

08What would remove it

No candidate relief has been written up for this one yet.

09Science pipeline

63 papers, preprints and grants collected, unreviewed
  1. Research55 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)+1 (Computed: Items first collected in the last 7 days whose publication or award date is within the last 30 days.) new
  2. Lab7 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  3. Pilot1 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  4. Early0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  5. Scale0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)

judged, with a citation claimed, no citationNumber: papers, preprints and grants the feeds collected — unreviewed

The full pipeline, by stage →

10What has happened

Nothing recorded about this one yet.

Events are added when a source is read and accepted by hand.

11What this holds up

2 loops
  • Siliconone turn: Months

    Worst judgement on this loop: How this is computedThe highest severity score among the bottlenecks recorded as gates on the loop.Method →Code →, judged 2026-09-15

  • Materials qualificationone turn: Years

    Worst judgement on this loop: How this is computedThe highest severity score among the bottlenecks recorded as gates on the loop.Method →Code →, judged 2026-09-15

A loop is one design, build and measure turn. Severity is a dated judgement on a 0–12 scale, not a measurement, and the judgements are not added together — the figure shown is the worst single one.

Discussion

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