Bottlenecks

As JSON →

The machines, materials, power, permits and people that decide how fast AI, energy and robots can grow — each in one plain sentence, with how hard it binds, who makes it and how well that is sourced. Start with the tightest, or jump to a stage.

Mapped: How this is computedCount of rows in the bottleneck corpus: every material plus every non-material chokepoint.Method →Code →; across How this is computedBottlenecks on that stage of the loop, and how many of them have every producer row sourced.Method →Code → stages
Binding now: How this is computedCount of bottlenecks whose assessed horizon is "now".Method →Code →; judged to be the constraint today
Maker rows sourced: How this is computedProducer rows counted by verification state from the corpus: sourced (an accepted primary source is linked) or unverified (none yet). Unchecked pages: open rows in the producer-sourcing queue, counted live from the database.Method →Code →; How this is computedProducer rows counted by verification state from the corpus: sourced (an accepted primary source is linked) or unverified (none yet). Unchecked pages: open rows in the producer-sourcing queue, counted live from the database.Method →Code → still unverified
Countries: How this is computedNumber of distinct country codes on the rows being counted (makers, or rules).Method →Code →; where the mapped makers operate

Refine by technology, industry, stage or evidence · 19 matches

Technology

All AI & compute19 Robotics & autonomy8 Energy17 Advanced manufacturing10 Space & launch5

Industry

All Semiconductors16 Power & grid2 Mining & materials5 Gases & chemicals4 Data centres4

Stage

All Compute6 Energy3 Materials & tools8 Talent1 Permission1

When it bites

All Now10 Within 2 years6 Later3

Evidence

All Verified13 Source found4 Unverified2

Bottleneck	Where	Makers	Severity	When it bites	Evidence
ComputeHow this is computedBottlenecks on that stage of the loop, and how many of them have every producer row sourced.Method →Code →takes Estimate, not a measurementOrder-of-magnitude time from a decision to relief at this stage of the loop. Illustrative: chosen by hand, not taken from a measured lead-time dataset.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 to loosen
EUV lithography scanners The machines that print the finest circuit patterns. One company on earth builds them.	NL	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Now	Verified
EUV projection optics The mirrors inside those machines, polished flatter than anything else made. One supplier has ever achieved it.	DE	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Now	Verified
Photoresist formulation The light-sensitive chemistry that turns a projected pattern into a circuit. Overwhelmingly Japanese, and qualified factory by factory.	JP	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Within 2 years	Verified
Advanced packaging capacity Assembling several chips into one AI accelerator. How many exist is set here, not at the wafer.	TW KR US	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Now	Verified
Leading-edge foundry capacity Factories that can make chips at the newest generation. A handful exist, and the leader spends tens of billions of dollars a year adding more.	TW KR US	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Now	Verified
High-bandwidth memory stacking yield Stacking memory chips next to a processor without breaking them. Three companies can do it at volume.	KR US	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Now	Verified
EnergyHow this is computedBottlenecks on that stage of the loop, and how many of them have every producer row sourced.Method →Code →takes Estimate, not a measurementOrder-of-magnitude time from a decision to relief at this stage of the loop. Illustrative: chosen by hand, not taken from a measured lead-time dataset.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 to loosen
Large power transformer slots The big transformers a data centre needs to take grid power. Ordering one now means waiting more than two years.	KR DE JP US	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Now	Verified
Liquid helium (He-4) The only practical way to reach the temperatures superconducting magnets and some chip tools need. It cannot be manufactured.	QA US RU GB FR	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Within 2 years	5 of 6 verified
Two-phase dielectric immersion coolant An engineered liquid that servers are submerged in, which boils to carry heat away. The main maker has left the business.	US BE JP	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Within 2 years	Verified
Materials & toolsHow this is computedBottlenecks on that stage of the loop, and how many of them have every producer row sourced.Method →Code →takes Estimate, not a measurementOrder-of-magnitude time from a decision to relief at this stage of the loop. Illustrative: chosen by hand, not taken from a measured lead-time dataset.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 to loosen
Crucible-grade high-purity quartz sand An unusually pure sand used to line the crucibles that grow silicon crystals. Most of it comes from one place on earth.	NO US BE RU CN JP	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Now	6 of 7 verified
300 mm prime silicon wafers The polished silicon discs most chips are built on, made by a handful of companies.	JP TW DE KR	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Within 2 years	Verified
Neon, excimer laser grade A rare gas that fills the lasers in chipmaking machines. Separated from air, mostly as a by-product of making steel.	GB US DE FR UA CN	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Within 2 years	5 of 6 verified
Ruthenium, sputtering and ALD grade A rare metal being adopted for the wiring inside advanced chips. It comes out of the ground only alongside platinum.	ZA RU DE GB BE JP	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Within 2 years	Verified
Electronic-grade polysilicon Silicon purified to eleven nines, the raw material every silicon wafer starts from.	DE US JP MY KR	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Later	Verified
High-purity tin, EUV droplet grade Ultra-pure tin droplets, vaporised by a laser to make the light that prints the most advanced chips.	CN PE ID MY US CA DE	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Later	Verified
Gallium, refined A soft metal recovered from aluminium refining, used in fast power and radio chips. China refines almost all of it and licenses its export.	CN CA AU	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Now	5 of 6 verified
CVD synthetic diamond heat spreader Laboratory-grown diamond used to pull heat out of the hottest chips. Nothing conducts heat better.	GB IE US DE JP	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Later	Verified
TalentHow this is computedBottlenecks on that stage of the loop, and how many of them have every producer row sourced.Method →Code →takes Estimate, not a measurementOrder-of-magnitude time from a decision to relief at this stage of the loop. Illustrative: chosen by hand, not taken from a measured lead-time dataset.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 to loosen
Semiconductor process engineers People who have brought a chip factory into production before. You cannot buy them and you cannot hurry them.	—	Single node	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Now	Unverified
PermissionHow this is computedBottlenecks on that stage of the loop, and how many of them have every producer row sourced.Method →Code →takes Estimate, not a measurementOrder-of-magnitude time from a decision to relief at this stage of the loop. Illustrative: chosen by hand, not taken from a measured lead-time dataset.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 to loosen
Grid interconnection queues The administrative line to be connected to the electricity grid. In several markets it is the slowest step in building anything.	—	Single node	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Now	Unverified

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What these columns mean

Severity: Four questions, each scored 0 to 3: how few suppliers qualify, how hard it is to replace, how long new capacity takes, and whether the buyer can walk away. Higher is worse for progress. Judged by hand and dated on every page.
When it bites: A judgement about when this constraint is expected to be the one holding things up.
Evidence: Verified means a person opened a source that says so and the link is on the page. Source found means an automated search located a page that appears to say so and nobody has read it yet. Unverified means neither. Only verified rows are findings.
Makers: How many organisations are mapped as making this, and how much of that list is verified. A single node — a machine, a queue, a skill — has no maker list.