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Gallium, refined

A soft metal recovered from aluminium refining, used in fast power and radio chips. China refines almost all of it and licenses its export.

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Severity
How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →
How hard it binds, 0 to 12
When it bites
Now
judged 2026-09-15
Evidence
5 of 6 verified
6 maker rows

AI & computeEnergySpace & launchSemiconductorsMining & materialsWork on it: roles and trainingReport an error on GitHub

01Key numbers

dated, each linked to its source
3 (Computed: Count of dated values in a series, or of series matching the filters, across the committed corpus and the official statistics fetched on schedule.) more series on this bottleneck

Every series on every bottleneck — filter, compare and download.

02Why it holds things up

A by-product of alumina refining, so primary supply cannot respond to price. Concentrated in one jurisdiction and under export control since 2023 — the textbook case for why the map matters.

Grade that ships · 4N–7N gallium metal. Export-licence and end-use documentation required.

Part of the process · Materials & tools, which takes years, per qualification to loosen once somebody decides to.

03Severity

judged 2026-09-15 · a judgement, not a measurement

How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code → / 12

How few suppliers qualify
Estimate, not a measurementChina refines nearly all primary gallium and licenses its export. Substitution is possible for some uses, not for GaN.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
How hard to replace
Estimate, not a measurementChina refines nearly all primary gallium and licenses its export. Substitution is possible for some uses, not for GaN.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
Decision to new capacity
Estimate, not a measurementChina refines nearly all primary gallium and licenses its export. Substitution is possible for some uses, not for GaN.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
Can the buyer walk away
Estimate, not a measurementChina refines nearly all primary gallium and licenses its export. Substitution is possible for some uses, not for GaN.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3

China refines nearly all primary gallium and licenses its export. Substitution is possible for some uses, not for GaN.

04How much, and where

world total 760,000 kilograms (2024, estimated)

What these figures count · primary low-purity gallium, recovered as a byproduct. Read the stage before the number: this is refined output.

  • ChinaSourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024, estimated by the sourceOpen the source → (2024, est.)

    How this is computedA place's annual production ÷ the published world total, same unit and year.Method →Code → of refined world output

    USGS does not quantify gallium reserves: it is a byproduct of bauxite and zinc processing.

  • RussiaSourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024, estimated by the sourceOpen the source → (2024, est.)

    How this is computedA place's annual production ÷ the published world total, same unit and year.Method →Code → of refined world output

    USGS does not quantify gallium reserves: it is a byproduct of bauxite and zinc processing.

  • JapanSourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024, estimated by the sourceOpen the source → (2024, est.)

    How this is computedA place's annual production ÷ the published world total, same unit and year.Method →Code → of refined world output

    USGS does not quantify gallium reserves: it is a byproduct of bauxite and zinc processing.

  • South KoreaSourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024, estimated by the sourceOpen the source → (2024, est.)

    How this is computedA place's annual production ÷ the published world total, same unit and year.Method →Code → of refined world output

    USGS does not quantify gallium reserves: it is a byproduct of bauxite and zinc processing.

Concentration · How this is computedSum of the squares of each producer’s share of world output (0–1).Method →Code → on the Herfindahl index across 4 recorded producers, where 1.00 is a single supplier. This is arithmetic from the figures above, not the judgement shown under severity — the two are worth comparing.

Primary low-purity gallium. Refining capacity sits elsewhere and is counted separately. Figures are read 2026-09-17 from the source ↗. Reserves are not resources: what is economic to extract, not what exists.

05Who makes it

5 verified of 6 rows

1 of 1 unsourced rows have pages the sourcing engine found that nobody has checked yet.

OrganisationStepEvidence
Chalco601600 CHRefineVerified source ↗
East Hope GroupNo listing foundRefineVerified source ↗
Zhuhai FangyuanNo listing foundRefineVerified source ↗
Rio TintoRIO LNRefineVerified source ↗
NyrstarNo listing foundRefine
4 found, unchecked
  • Nyrstar considers potential germanium and gallium projects | Trafigura ↗

    “Nyrstar considers potential germanium and gallium projects | Trafigura Trafigura in brief Trafigura in kürze Trafigura en resumen Trafigura em resumo Trafigura en bref 托克简介 Trafigura会社概要 Trafigura in brief Trafigura in kürze Tr”

  • Nyrstar’s Middle Tennessee Mines operations to temporarily pause production | Nyrstar ↗

    “d profitability of the mines.”, said Bill Hart, Nyrstar's Vice President Environment, Health & Safety, Human Resources and Corporate Affairs for North American Mining. During this temporary pause in production operations, Nyrstar plans to conduct drilling to explore and define additional zinc, germanium, and gallium resources to position the company to increase the supply to Nyrstar’s Clarksville, TN smelter upon completion of a planned invest”

  • ‘Innovation keeps our company futureproof’ | Nyrstar ↗

    “ecessary in order to make our organisation futureproof.’ Naturally, all projects must be economically viable. But it is also possible that certain projects will be realised because, in the first instance, they will make Nyrstar’s business activities more sustainable or more energy-efficient. ‘In addition to our site in Balen, we have worked with partners and built one of the largest wind farms in the country. That was an investment in improvin”

  • If Nyrstar Were Worthless, Why Is Everyone Fighting Over It? ↗

    “dictions. That framing has flipped almost overnight. Governments across Australia, Europe and North America are now waking up to what these facilities actually process alongside their base metals. Besides zinc and lead, Nyrstar recovers antimony, germanium, indium, bismuth, tellurium and gallium. This cluster of by-product metals has become indispensable to defence manufacturing, semiconductors, energy storage and the broader clean-energy tran”

5N PlusVNP CNConvertVerified source ↗

06Rules that govern it

  • 2024-12-03ChinaSlows building

    Announcement No. 46 of 2024 on strengthening export controls of dual-use items to the United States

    Bans dual-use exports to US military users, and says licences for gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard materials to the US will in principle not be granted.

    Ministry of Commerce ↗

  • 2023-07-03ChinaSlows building

    Announcement No. 23 of 2023 on export controls for gallium- and germanium-related items

    Eight gallium and six germanium item classes may not leave China without an export licence.

    Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs ↗

All policy →

07What would remove it

No candidate relief has been written up for this one yet.

08Science pipeline

43 papers, preprints and grants collected, unreviewed
  1. Research42 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)+1 (Computed: Items first collected in the last 7 days whose publication or award date is within the last 30 days.) new
  2. Lab1 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  3. Pilot0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  4. Early0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  5. Scale0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)

judged, with a citation claimed, no citationNumber: papers, preprints and grants the feeds collected — unreviewed

The full pipeline, by stage →

09Is there an alternative

2 recorded
  • Silicon or indium phosphide in the device, instead of gallium compoundsqualified for some uses

    Qualification — proving it for this use takes years · Cost — it works and nobody will pay

    For some optoelectronic and RF parts another semiconductor will do, and for others the gallium compound is chosen precisely because nothing else has its properties. A substitution that works in one product line says nothing about the next: each device has to be requalified, which is the years, not the chemistry.

    Source ↗

  • Primary production outside Chinademonstrated, not qualified

    Capacity — not enough of it exists · Cost — it works and nobody will pay

    This is not a substitute for the material but for the supplier, and it is the relevant one: gallium is recovered as a byproduct of bauxite and zinc processing, so the capacity exists wherever alumina is refined. Germany, Hungary and Kazakhstan all produced it and stopped, in 2016, 2015 and 2013 — the plants were not destroyed by physics but closed on price. Restarting is a capital decision, which is why export controls moved the price before they moved the supply.

    Source ↗

An alternative existing is not the same as it being available. Physics is a law; qualification and capacity are schedules — and only one of those can be changed with money.

10What has happened

1 dated
  1. 2025-11-07
    LoosensPolicyCN

    China suspends the export-control package it issued a month earlier, including its gallium measures, until November 2026.

    gvw.com ↗secondary source

    The sentence that says so

    “On November 7, 2025, MOFCOM announced the suspension of the entire package of export controls issued just one month prior.”

All events →

11What this holds up

2 loops
  • Materials qualificationone turn: Years

    Worst judgement on this loop: How this is computedThe highest severity score among the bottlenecks recorded as gates on the loop.Method →Code →, judged 2026-09-15

  • Circuit boardsone turn: One to two weeks

    Worst judgement on this loop: How this is computedThe highest severity score among the bottlenecks recorded as gates on the loop.Method →Code →, judged 2026-09-15

A loop is one design, build and measure turn. Severity is a dated judgement on a 0–12 scale, not a measurement, and the judgements are not added together — the figure shown is the worst single one.

Discussion

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