High-bandwidth memory stacking yield

• Other · WorldSK hynix HBM market share by revenue56.4SourcedSK hynix Form F-1/A (SEC), citing IDC · Q1 2026Open the source →Check this number with Ask %Q1 2026−11%How this is computedThe latest value in a series minus the value before it, divided by the earlier value, same series and unit.63.2 (2025) → 56.4 (Q1 2026).Method →Code →Check this number with Ask vs 2025

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  63.2 %2025SK hynix draft registration statement DRS/A (SEC), citing IDC ↗56.4 %Q1 2026SK hynix Form F-1/A (SEC), citing IDC ↗

  2025Q1 2026

  Period	Value	Source
  Q1 2026	56.4SourcedSK hynix Form F-1/A (SEC), citing IDC · 2026-07-06Open the source →Check this number with Ask %	SK hynix Form F-1/A (SEC), citing IDC ↗ secondary reportIn the HBM market, we were ranked first globally based on revenue with a market share of 56.4% in the first quarter of 2026, according to IDC.Company filing citing IDC data
  2025	63.2SourcedSK hynix draft registration statement DRS/A (SEC), citing IDC · 2026-05-29Open the source →Check this number with Ask %	SK hynix draft registration statement DRS/A (SEC), citing IDC ↗ secondary reportSK hynix is a leading player in the HBM market, with a 63.2% market share by revenue in 2025, according to IDC.Company filing citing IDC data

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• Other · WorldHBM share of DRAM wafer input (top 3 suppliers)30SourcedTrendForce press release · Dec 2027Open the source →Check this number with Ask %Dec 2027 · target or forecast+36%How this is computedThe latest value in a series minus the value before it, divided by the earlier value, same series and unit.22 (Dec 2026) → 30 (Dec 2027).Method →Code →Check this number with Ask vs Dec 2026

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  18 %Dec 2025TrendForce press release ↗22 %Dec 2026TrendForce press release ↗30 %Dec 2027TrendForce press release ↗

  Dec 2025Dec 2027

  Period	Value	Source
  Dec 2027	30SourcedTrendForce press release · 2026-06-02Open the source →Check this number with Ask % target or forecast	TrendForce press release ↗ primaryTrendForce estimates that HBM wafer input among the top three suppliers will account for approximately 18%, 22%, and 30% of total DRAM wafer input by the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively.TrendForce estimate; end-of-year; 2026-27 are projections
  Dec 2026	22SourcedTrendForce press release · 2026-06-02Open the source →Check this number with Ask % target or forecast	TrendForce press release ↗ primaryTrendForce estimates that HBM wafer input among the top three suppliers will account for approximately 18%, 22%, and 30% of total DRAM wafer input by the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively.TrendForce estimate; end-of-year; 2026-27 are projections
  Dec 2025	18SourcedTrendForce press release · 2026-06-02Open the source →Check this number with Ask %	TrendForce press release ↗ primaryTrendForce estimates that HBM wafer input among the top three suppliers will account for approximately 18%, 22%, and 30% of total DRAM wafer input by the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively.TrendForce estimate; end-of-year; 2026-27 are projections

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• Other · WorldHBM share of DRAM bit supply13SourcedTrendForce press release · Dec 2027Open the source →Check this number with Ask %Dec 2027 · target or forecast+44%How this is computedThe latest value in a series minus the value before it, divided by the earlier value, same series and unit.9 (Dec 2026) → 13 (Dec 2027).Method →Code →Check this number with Ask vs Dec 2026

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  8 %Dec 2025TrendForce press release ↗9 %Dec 2026TrendForce press release ↗13 %Dec 2027TrendForce press release ↗

  Dec 2025Dec 2027

  Period	Value	Source
  Dec 2027	13SourcedTrendForce press release · 2026-06-02Open the source →Check this number with Ask % target or forecast	TrendForce press release ↗ primaryMeanwhile, HBM bit supply is expected to represent approximately 8%, 9%, and 13% of total DRAM bit supply during the same period.TrendForce estimate; note different basis from 2024 bit-capacity series
  Dec 2026	9SourcedTrendForce press release · 2026-06-02Open the source →Check this number with Ask % target or forecast	TrendForce press release ↗ primaryMeanwhile, HBM bit supply is expected to represent approximately 8%, 9%, and 13% of total DRAM bit supply during the same period.TrendForce estimate; note different basis from 2024 bit-capacity series
  Dec 2025	8SourcedTrendForce press release · 2026-06-02Open the source →Check this number with Ask %	TrendForce press release ↗ primaryMeanwhile, HBM bit supply is expected to represent approximately 8%, 9%, and 13% of total DRAM bit supply during the same period.TrendForce estimate; note different basis from 2024 bit-capacity series

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• Other · WorldHBM share of DRAM bit capacity10SourcedTrendForce press release · 2025Open the source →Check this number with Ask %2025+100%How this is computedThe latest value in a series minus the value before it, divided by the earlier value, same series and unit.5 (2024) → 10 (2025).Method →Code →Check this number with Ask vs 2024

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  2 %2023TrendForce press release ↗5 %2024TrendForce press release ↗10 %2025TrendForce press release ↗

  20232025

  Period	Value	Source
  2025	10SourcedTrendForce press release · 2024-05-06Open the source →Check this number with Ask %	TrendForce press release ↗ primarySpecifically, HBM’s share of total DRAM bit capacity is estimated to rise from 2% in 2023 to 5% in 2024 and surpass 10% by 2025.Projection, "surpass 10%"
  2024	5SourcedTrendForce press release · 2024-05-06Open the source →Check this number with Ask %	TrendForce press release ↗ primarySpecifically, HBM’s share of total DRAM bit capacity is estimated to rise from 2% in 2023 to 5% in 2024 and surpass 10% by 2025.TrendForce estimate made May 2024
  2023	2SourcedTrendForce press release · 2024-05-06Open the source →Check this number with Ask %	TrendForce press release ↗ primarySpecifically, HBM’s share of total DRAM bit capacity is estimated to rise from 2% in 2023 to 5% in 2024 and surpass 10% by 2025.TrendForce estimate

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• Output · WorldHBM market revenue (Gartner)86SourcedSK hynix Form F-1/A (SEC), citing Gartner · 2027Open the source →Check this number with Ask USD bn2027 · target or forecast+161%How this is computedThe latest value in a series minus the value before it, divided by the earlier value, same series and unit.33 (2025) → 86 (2027).Method →Code →Check this number with Ask vs 2025

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  33 USD bn2025SK hynix Form F-1/A (SEC), citing Gartner ↗86 USD bn2027SK hynix Form F-1/A (SEC), citing Gartner ↗

  20252027

  Period	Value	Source
  2027	86SourcedSK hynix Form F-1/A (SEC), citing Gartner · 2026-07-06Open the source →Check this number with Ask USD bn target or forecast	SK hynix Form F-1/A (SEC), citing Gartner ↗ secondary reportHBM revenues are forecast to increase from US$33 billion in 2025 to US$86 billion in 2027, representing a CAGR of 60.5%.Forecast
  2025	33SourcedSK hynix Form F-1/A (SEC), citing Gartner · 2026-07-06Open the source →Check this number with Ask USD bn	SK hynix Form F-1/A (SEC), citing Gartner ↗ secondary reportHBM revenues are forecast to increase from US$33 billion in 2025 to US$86 billion in 2027, representing a CAGR of 60.5%.

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• Other · WorldHBM share of DRAM market value30SourcedTrendForce press release · 2025Open the source →Check this number with Ask %2025+50%How this is computedThe latest value in a series minus the value before it, divided by the earlier value, same series and unit.20 (2024) → 30 (2025).Method →Code →Check this number with Ask vs 2024

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  20 %2024TrendForce press release ↗30 %2025TrendForce press release ↗

  20242025

  Period	Value	Source
  2025	30SourcedTrendForce press release · 2024-05-06Open the source →Check this number with Ask %	TrendForce press release ↗ primaryIn terms of market value, HBM is projected to account for more than 20% of the total DRAM market value starting in 2024, potentially exceeding 30% by 2025.Projection, "potentially exceeding 30%"
  2024	20SourcedTrendForce press release · 2024-05-06Open the source →Check this number with Ask %	TrendForce press release ↗ primaryIn terms of market value, HBM is projected to account for more than 20% of the total DRAM market value starting in 2024, potentially exceeding 30% by 2025.Projection, "more than 20%"

  Read from the sources Read from the source by an agent; quote matched mechanically against the fetched page; not yet reviewed by a person, 2026-09-24. Each value links the page it came from and quotes the sentence that carries it.

  Series pageDownload CSV

Every series on every bottleneck — filter, compare and download.

Three suppliers, and the yield on stacking and bonding is knowledge that does not transfer when someone else buys the same equipment.

Part of the process · Compute, which takes quarters to years to loosen once somebody decides to.

10How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →Check this number with Ask / 12

Three suppliers, and yield is knowledge. Every accelerator ships with it.

• 2024-12-05United StatesSlows building

  Foreign-produced direct product rule additions, including controls on high-bandwidth memory

  Brought the memory stacks that feed AI accelerators inside the export-control perimeter.

  Bureau of Industry and Security, Department of Commerce ↗

All policy →

• Hybrid bonding7/9Estimate, not a measurementIn production for some image sensors and logic stacks; ramping for memory stacks.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15Supporting source →Check this number with Ask · Pilot running in the real environment

  Removes the bump layer that limits how many memory dies can be stacked and cooled.

All science →

1. Research30 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)+4 (Computed: Items first collected in the last 7 days whose publication or award date is within the last 30 days.) new
2. Lab1 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
3. Pilot1 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
4. Early0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
5. Scale0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)

judged, with a citation claimed, no citationNumber: papers, preprints and grants the feeds collected — unreviewed

• Preprint2026-10-10Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)0SourcedOpenAlex, as fetchedOpen the source →Check this number with Ask citations

  Non-Commutative Rough 3D-Integration Dynamics (NC-R3DI) Subsuming Sub-2nm Microfabrication and HBM 3D Packaging Limits via UROA, STCT, and RQIG ↗

  Sub-2nm logic scaling and High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) 3D packaging are inextricably coupled system limits. While lithography and atomic etching govern transistor power bounds, HBM stacking dictates severe thermal and memory wall constraints. This paper supersedes independent…

  Fundamental research · No laboratory or pilot wording.From OpenAlex · not yet reviewedDOI

• Paper2026-10-09Datenbank-Spektrum0SourcedOpenAlex, as fetchedOpen the source →Check this number with Ask citations

  Characterising CPU-initiated High Bandwidth Memory Access ↗

  Abstract An increasing number of high-performance computers are equipped with high bandwidth memory. Their CPUs have cache-coherent access to this memory type over high-speed interconnects or as unified memory. We analyse two such systems, NVIDIA’s GH200 and AMD’s MI300A. We…

  Hasso Plattner Institute

  Fundamental research · No laboratory or pilot wording.From OpenAlex · not yet reviewedDOIPDF

• Paper2026-10-07Applied Thermal Engineering0SourcedOpenAlex, as fetchedOpen the source →Check this number with Ask citations

  Topology-optimized microchannel cooling for heterogeneous logic-HBM heat sources: thermal-hydraulic optimization and thermo-mechanical assessment ↗

  Efficient cooling of heterogeneous 2.5D packages remains a critical challenge due to the spatially non-uniform heat generation and distinct thermal requirements of logic and High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) regions. However, existing microchannel heat sink (MCHS) studies predominantly…

  Shanghai Jiao Tong UniversityChinese Academy of SciencesShanghai Institute of Microsystem and Information Technology

  Fundamental research · No laboratory or pilot wording.From OpenAlex · not yet reviewedDOI

• Paper2026-10-01Microelectronics Journal0SourcedOpenAlex, as fetchedOpen the source →Check this number with Ask citations

  Dumbbell-Shaped Through Silicon Vias for Impedance-Tunable High-Frequency Signal Transmission in 2.5D/3D Integration ↗

  Fundamental research · No laboratory or pilot wording.From OpenAlex · not yet reviewedDOI

• Paper2026-09-29Applied Surface Science0SourcedOpenAlex, as fetchedOpen the source →Check this number with Ask citations

  Glucose-derived vapor-phase reduction of Cu surface oxides during Cu–Cu direct bonding ↗

  As 3D integration and high-performance semiconductor packaging continue to advance, Cu hybrid bonding has become increasingly important. This bonding technology is highly promising because it offers excellent electrical conductivity and enables fine-pitch interconnections without…

  Korea Institute of Industrial Technology

  Applied / lab · Says "we demonstrate".From OpenAlex · not yet reviewedDOI

The full pipeline, by stage →

• 2026-09-15open until 2027-03-31

  Through 2026, high-bandwidth memory supply rather than leading-edge wafer supply will be the stated limit on AI accelerator shipments.

  Settled by · Earnings calls or guidance from an accelerator maker or a memory maker naming which of the two limited shipments during 2026.

All calls →

1. 2026-08-15
   LoosensCapacityKR VN

   Samsung weighs moving legacy memory packaging to Vietnam to free Korean lines for HBM stacking.

   WhoSamsung Memory

   techtimes.com ↗official source

   The sentence that says so

   “A move that would free floor space and specialized equipment lines at both sites for the high-bandwidth memory stacking work.”

   Check this

All events →

• Software scaffoldone turn: Minutes

  Worst judgement on this loop: 11 of 12How this is computedThe highest severity score among the bottlenecks recorded as gates on the loop.Method →Code →Check this number with Ask, judged 2026-09-15

• Frontier training runone turn: Weeks to months

  Worst judgement on this loop: 11 of 12How this is computedThe highest severity score among the bottlenecks recorded as gates on the loop.Method →Code →Check this number with Ask, judged 2026-09-15

A loop is one design, build and measure turn. Severity is a dated judgement on a 0–12 scale, not a measurement, and the judgements are not added together — the figure shown is the worst single one.

• Hybrid bondingrelieved by

  source-backed readiness judgement

• Foreign-produced direct product rule additions, including controls on high-bandwidth memorygoverned by

  primary source

• South Koreafound in

  directory join, not a sourced finding