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Material · Semiconductor Feedstock · DE US JP MY KR

Electronic-grade polysilicon

Silicon purified to eleven nines, the raw material every silicon wafer starts from.

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Severity
How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →
How hard it binds, 0 to 12
When it bites
Later
judged 2026-09-15
Evidence
Verified
5 maker rows

AI & computeEnergySemiconductorsMining & materialsWork on it: roles and trainingReport an error on GitHub

01Key numbers

dated, each linked to its source

Every series on every bottleneck — filter, compare and download.

02Why it holds things up

Solar-grade polysilicon has many producers; electronic-grade has very few, and the gap between the two is measured in orders of magnitude of impurity, not in price.

Grade that ships · 11N (99.999999999%) polysilicon chunk or rod, Siemens process.

Part of the process · Materials & tools, which takes years, per qualification to loosen once somebody decides to.

03Severity

judged 2026-09-15 · a judgement, not a measurement

How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code → / 12

How few suppliers qualify
Estimate, not a measurementFive producers at eleven nines; capacity is being added (Tokuyama Vietnam, OCI). Not binding, and the loosening events say so.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
How hard to replace
Estimate, not a measurementFive producers at eleven nines; capacity is being added (Tokuyama Vietnam, OCI). Not binding, and the loosening events say so.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
Decision to new capacity
Estimate, not a measurementFive producers at eleven nines; capacity is being added (Tokuyama Vietnam, OCI). Not binding, and the loosening events say so.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
Can the buyer walk away
Estimate, not a measurementFive producers at eleven nines; capacity is being added (Tokuyama Vietnam, OCI). Not binding, and the loosening events say so.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3

Five producers at eleven nines; capacity is being added (Tokuyama Vietnam, OCI). Not binding, and the loosening events say so.

04Who makes it

5 verified of 5 rows
OrganisationStepEvidence
Wacker ChemieWCH GRRefineVerified source ↗
Hemlock SemiconductorNo listing foundRefineVerified source ↗
Tokuyama4043 JPRefineVerified source ↗
OCI456040 KSRefineVerified source ↗
Mitsubishi Materials5711 JPRefineVerified source ↗

05What it rests on, and what rests on it

each row quotes the page it rests on

Depended on by

A recorded dependency is a sentence, not a share, a volume or a contract. Walk it on a portfolio →

06Rules that govern it

All policy →

07What would remove it

No candidate relief has been written up for this one yet.

08Science pipeline

10 papers, preprints and grants collected, unreviewed
  1. Research10 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  2. Lab0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  3. Pilot0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  4. Early0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  5. Scale0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)

judged, with a citation claimed, no citationNumber: papers, preprints and grants the feeds collected — unreviewed

The full pipeline, by stage →

09What we have predicted

  • 2026-09-15open until 2029-06-30

    The US Section 232 action on polysilicon will not add qualified electronic-grade capacity in the United States before 2029, whatever it does to solar-grade supply.

    Settled by · Any announcement by a producer of new US electronic-grade (eleven-nines) polysilicon capacity qualified and shipping to a semiconductor customer before 2029 would settle this against the call.

All calls →

10Who could fund relief

Is funding the constraint? · Money is not the constraint

A US plant is at risk of closing because a trade measure drove its customers away. Capacity is not short of funding; it is short of buyers.

  • Japan Bank for International CooperationExport credit

    Japan’s policy-based financial institution: lending, investment and guarantees that sit beside private banks rather than instead of them.

    Export credit will not fund · A project with no domestic content. The money follows the exporter, not the need, which is why it can build a plant on one continent and never on another.

A mandate covering the kind of asset that would relieve this row. Not a claim that anyone has funded one, and not advice.

11What has happened

3 dated
  1. 2026-09-05
    TightensCapacityUS DE

    Wacker’s 600-worker Charleston polysilicon plant may close after a US trade measure drove off both its customers.

    WhoWacker Chemie

    arkansasonline.com ↗secondary source

    The sentence that says so

    “The move follows a White House proclamation last month that seeks to incentivize purchases of American polysilicon, the sources said, declining to be named because the matter was not public.”

  2. 2026-08-27
    LoosensCapacityVN JP

    Tokuyama opens a polysilicon factory in Vietnam.

    WhoTokuyama

    pv-magazine-india.com ↗official source

    The sentence that says so

    “Japan's Tokuyama opens polysilicon factory in Vietnam.”

  3. 2026-07-28
    LoosensCapacityKR MY US

    OCI Holdings plans to double polysilicon production capacity by 2029 to meet US demand.

    WhoOCI

    pv-magazine.com ↗official source

    The sentence that says so

    “OCI Holdings plans to double polysilicon production capacity by 2029.”

All events →

12What this holds up

2 loops
  • Siliconone turn: Months

    Worst judgement on this loop: How this is computedThe highest severity score among the bottlenecks recorded as gates on the loop.Method →Code →, judged 2026-09-15

  • Materials qualificationone turn: Years

    Worst judgement on this loop: How this is computedThe highest severity score among the bottlenecks recorded as gates on the loop.Method →Code →, judged 2026-09-15

A loop is one design, build and measure turn. Severity is a dated judgement on a 0–12 scale, not a measurement, and the judgements are not added together — the figure shown is the worst single one.

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