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Material · Lithography & Optics · GB US DE FR UA CN

Neon, excimer laser grade

A rare gas that fills the lasers in chipmaking machines. Separated from air, mostly as a by-product of making steel.

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Severity
How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →
How hard it binds, 0 to 12
When it bites
Within 2 years
judged 2026-09-15
Evidence
5 of 6 verified
6 maker rows

AI & computeAdvanced manufacturingSemiconductorsGases & chemicalsWork on it: roles and trainingReport an error on GitHub

01Key numbers

dated, each linked to its source

Every series on every bottleneck — filter, compare and download.

02Why it holds things up

Neon is separated from air, but economically only alongside large-scale air separation attached to steelmaking — which is why an industrial gas map and a war map turned out to be the same map in 2022.

Grade that ships · ≥99.999% neon, cylinder or ISO container, blended mixes to order.

Part of the process · Materials & tools, which takes years, per qualification to loosen once somebody decides to.

03Severity

judged 2026-09-15 · a judgement, not a measurement

How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code → / 12

How few suppliers qualify
Estimate, not a measurement2022 showed the map: separation rides on steelmaking and half of it sat in Ukraine. Recycling eased it; another shock would not be absorbed.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
How hard to replace
Estimate, not a measurement2022 showed the map: separation rides on steelmaking and half of it sat in Ukraine. Recycling eased it; another shock would not be absorbed.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
Decision to new capacity
Estimate, not a measurement2022 showed the map: separation rides on steelmaking and half of it sat in Ukraine. Recycling eased it; another shock would not be absorbed.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
Can the buyer walk away
Estimate, not a measurement2022 showed the map: separation rides on steelmaking and half of it sat in Ukraine. Recycling eased it; another shock would not be absorbed.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3

2022 showed the map: separation rides on steelmaking and half of it sat in Ukraine. Recycling eased it; another shock would not be absorbed.

04Who makes it

5 verified of 6 rows

1 of 1 unsourced rows have pages the sourcing engine found that nobody has checked yet.

OrganisationStepEvidence
LindeLIN USRefineVerified source ↗
Air LiquideAI FPRefineVerified source ↗
MesserPrivateRefineVerified source ↗
IceblickNo listing foundRefineVerified source ↗
Cryoin EngineeringNo listing foundRefineVerified source ↗
Baosteel GasesNo listing foundRefine
1 found, unchecked
  • Rare Gas Market: The Silent Backbone of Semiconductor Lithography and the Push for Neon Supply Independence ↗

    “political shift toward localized supply chains. China, in particular, is rapidly expanding its own rare gas production and purification capacity in an effort to achieve semiconductor self-sufficiency. Companies like Hangzhou Hangyang and Baosteel Gases are investing in air separation units and neon purification facilities to support domestic chip fabs. 𝐆𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐥 & 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐝 𝐌𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐚𝐥𝐬 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐲 𝐀𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐬𝐢𝐬: https://www”

05What it rests on, and what rests on it

each row quotes the page it rests on

Depended on by

  • Leading-edge foundry capacity
    “Their highly pure inert neon gas is needed as a buffer for lasers used during the chip fabrication process.”

    theregister.com · secondary source · Chip fabrication in general, not the leading edge only.

A recorded dependency is a sentence, not a share, a volume or a contract. Walk it on a portfolio →

06Rules that govern it

No rule has been researched for this one yet.

Policy coverage is being built jurisdiction by jurisdiction.

07What would remove it

  • On-site neon recycling and separationEstimate, not a measurementScored 8 here until the source was read. Two years after the shortage, a leading memory maker was still calling its own system an industry first, recovering 72.7% with 77% as a target — which is a working pilot at one firm, not an industry that has adopted it.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15Supporting source → · Prototype at meaningful scale

    Cuts demand per factory and decouples supply from one region’s steel industry.

All science →

08Science pipeline

19 papers, preprints and grants collected, unreviewed
  1. Research15 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  2. Lab4 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  3. Pilot0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  4. Early0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  5. Scale0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)

judged, with a citation claimed, no citationNumber: papers, preprints and grants the feeds collected — unreviewed

The full pipeline, by stage →

09What we have predicted

  • 2026-09-15open until 2028-01-31

    Neon will not see another supply squeeze of the 2022 kind before 2028, because on-site recycling has structurally cut what a fab needs.

    Settled by · Absence of a reported neon allocation, price spike above roughly three times the 2021 level, or fab output impact attributed to neon, through the end of 2027.

All calls →

10What has happened

1 dated
  1. 2022-11-10
    LoosensCapacityTW

    TSMC moves to build a neon supply chain in Taiwan after the war in Ukraine cut global supply.

    WhoTSMC

    tomshardware.com ↗official source

    The sentence that says so

    “TSMC to Build Neon Supply Chain After Russia Decimated Global Supply.”

All events →

11What this holds up

2 loops
  • Siliconone turn: Months

    Worst judgement on this loop: How this is computedThe highest severity score among the bottlenecks recorded as gates on the loop.Method →Code →, judged 2026-09-15

  • Materials qualificationone turn: Years

    Worst judgement on this loop: How this is computedThe highest severity score among the bottlenecks recorded as gates on the loop.Method →Code →, judged 2026-09-15

A loop is one design, build and measure turn. Severity is a dated judgement on a 0–12 scale, not a measurement, and the judgements are not added together — the figure shown is the worst single one.

Discussion

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