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Grid interconnection queues

The administrative line to be connected to the electricity grid. In several markets it is the slowest step in building anything.

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Severity
How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →
How hard it binds, 0 to 12
When it bites
Now
judged 2026-09-15
Evidence
Unverified
1 maker rows

EnergyAI & computePower & gridData centresWork on it: roles and trainingReport an error on GitHub

01Key numbers

dated, each linked to its source

What the text on this page claims, and the number behind it

Every series on every bottleneck — filter, compare and download.

02Why it holds things up

Not a material, not a machine, and frequently the binding constraint: a multi-year administrative queue between a signed site and a live megawatt.

Part of the process · Permission, which takes years to a decade to loosen once somebody decides to.

03Severity

judged 2026-09-15 · a judgement, not a measurement

How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code → / 12

How few suppliers qualify
Estimate, not a measurementAn administrative queue measured in years between a signed site and a live megawatt. Relief is a rule change, not a factory.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
How hard to replace
Estimate, not a measurementAn administrative queue measured in years between a signed site and a live megawatt. Relief is a rule change, not a factory.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
Decision to new capacity
Estimate, not a measurementAn administrative queue measured in years between a signed site and a live megawatt. Relief is a rule change, not a factory.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
Can the buyer walk away
Estimate, not a measurementAn administrative queue measured in years between a signed site and a live megawatt. Relief is a rule change, not a factory.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3

An administrative queue measured in years between a signed site and a live megawatt. Relief is a rule change, not a factory.

04What it rests on, and what rests on it

each row quotes the page it rests on

Depends on

  • High-voltage cable and switchgear
    “May require modest upgrades (breakers) or reconstruction of several high-voltage transmission lines.”

    eta-publications.lbl.gov · primary source · LBNL (Feb 2026), on network upgrades a new generator triggers. A cost item in the queue, not a stated supply constraint.

Depended on by

  • Microsoft
    “Limitations in power availability, delays in obtaining power connections, outages, shortages, increased energy costs, or requirements imposed by utilities, regulators, or other market participants could restrict our ability to develop or expand datacenter capacity.”

    sec.gov · primary source · Fiscal 2026 10-K risk factor. Names delays in power connections, not the interconnection queue by name.

  • Google
    “We have experienced and may in the future experience supply shortages, price increases, quality issues, or longer lead times that could harm our operations, driven by raw material or component availability, manufacturing capacity, labor shortages, industry allocations, logistics capacity, inflation, foreign currency exchange rates, tariffs, sanctions and export controls, trade disputes and barriers, forced labor concerns, sourcing requirements, geopolitical tensions, armed conflicts, natural disasters or pandemics, the effects of climate change, power and transmission availability, and significant changes in the financial or business condition of our suppliers.”

    sec.gov · primary source · Alphabet’s 2025 10-K. "Power and transmission availability" is one cause in a long list.

  • CoreWeave
    “Limitations on generation, transmission, and distribution may limit our ability to obtain sufficient power capacity for our potential expansion sites in new or existing markets.”

    sec.gov · primary source · Power capacity for new sites; does not say "queue".

  • Anthropic
    “The U.S. can enable the buildout of large-scale infrastructure for AI training in strategic locations, including by accelerating permitting, supporting targeted transmission projects, and collaborating with utilities to speed up grid interconnection processes.”

    anthropic.com · primary source · A policy recommendation for US AI infrastructure, not a statement about Anthropic’s own sites.

A recorded dependency is a sentence, not a share, a volume or a contract. Walk it on a portfolio →

05Rules that govern it

  • 2023-09-06United StatesSpeeds building

    Order No. 2023: improvements to generator interconnection procedures and agreements

    Rewrites how new generation joins the US grid: first-ready first-served clusters, deadlines and penalties, aimed squarely at the queue.

    Federal Energy Regulatory Commission ↗

All policy →

06What would remove it

  • Small modular reactorsEstimate, not a measurementDesigns are licensed or in licensing and first units are under construction; none is yet delivering power at scale in a Western market.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15Supporting source → · Prototype at meaningful scale

    Sited next to the load, it can skip the transmission queue that a distant plant cannot.

All science →

07Science pipeline

52 papers, preprints and grants collected, unreviewed
  1. Research45 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)+3 (Computed: Items first collected in the last 7 days whose publication or award date is within the last 30 days.) new
  2. Lab4 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  3. Pilot3 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  4. Early0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  5. Scale0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)

judged, with a citation claimed, no citationNumber: papers, preprints and grants the feeds collected — unreviewed

The full pipeline, by stage →

08What we have predicted

  • 2026-09-15open until 2029-03-31

    Median US interconnection queue duration will not fall below three years by the end of 2028, even though FERC Order No. 2023 took effect in November 2023.

    Settled by · The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory queued-projects series, or an equivalent published dataset, reporting median duration from request to agreement for projects completing in 2028.

All calls →

09Who could fund relief

Is funding the constraint? · Money is not the constraint

An administrative queue. There is nothing to buy. Money can fund the transmission that shortens it eventually, but the queue itself is a process, and process is relieved by rules.

  • Department of Energy Loan Programs OfficeDevelopment bank

    Lends at scale to energy projects that commercial lenders will not finance alone. It now operates as the Office of Energy Dominance Financing, under the authorities the Energy Policy Act of 2005 gave it.

    Development bank will not fund · Anything outside its mandate, however commercially sound. It is patient and cheap and narrow, in that order.

A mandate covering the kind of asset that would relieve this row. Not a claim that anyone has funded one, and not advice.

10What has happened

Nothing recorded about this one yet.

Events are added when a source is read and accepted by hand.

11What this holds up

2 loops
  • Frontier training runone turn: Weeks to months

    Worst judgement on this loop: How this is computedThe highest severity score among the bottlenecks recorded as gates on the loop.Method →Code →, judged 2026-09-15

  • Energyone turn: Months to years

    Worst judgement on this loop: How this is computedThe highest severity score among the bottlenecks recorded as gates on the loop.Method →Code →, judged 2026-09-15

A loop is one design, build and measure turn. Severity is a dated judgement on a 0–12 scale, not a measurement, and the judgements are not added together — the figure shown is the worst single one.

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