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High-voltage cable and switchgear

The cables and switches that move power at high voltage. Cable order books run far ahead of output, and switchgear waits are long.

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Severity
How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →
How hard it binds, 0 to 12
When it bites
Now
judged 2026-09-15
Evidence
Verified
2 maker rows

EnergyPower & gridMachinery & componentsWork on it: roles and trainingReport an error on GitHub

01Key numbers

dated, each linked to its source

What the text on this page claims, and the number behind it

2 (Computed: Count of dated values in a series, or of series matching the filters, across the committed corpus and the official statistics fetched on schedule.) more series on this bottleneck
  • Backlog · company: NexansNexans adjusted PWR-Transmission backlogSourcedNexans (H1 2026 results) · 30 Jun 2026Open the source → EUR bn30 Jun 2026How this is computedThe latest value in a series minus the value before it, divided by the earlier value, same series and unit.7.9 (31 Mar 2026) → 7.7 (30 Jun 2026).Method →Code → vs 31 Mar 2026 · flat
    Nexans adjusted PWR-Transmission backlog, EUR bn, 31 Dec 2025 to 30 Jun 2026. Every value is listed in the table below.
    7.7
    7.8
    7.9
    7.7 EUR bn31 Dec 2025Nexans (Q1 2026 financial information) ↗7.9 EUR bn31 Mar 2026Nexans (Q1 2026 financial information) ↗7.7 EUR bn30 Jun 2026Nexans (H1 2026 results) ↗
    PeriodValueSource
    30 Jun 2026SourcedNexans (H1 2026 results) · 2026-07-29Open the source → EUR bnNexans (H1 2026 results) ↗ primaryAdjusted backlog reached €7.7 billion at June 30th, 2026 (including €1.2 billion related to the Great Sea Interconnector project), compared to €7.7 billion at December 31, 2025.Includes €1.2bn Great Sea Interconnector; "visibility up until 2028".
    31 Mar 2026SourcedNexans (Q1 2026 financial information) · 2026-04-28Open the source → EUR bnNexans (Q1 2026 financial information) ↗ primaryAdjusted backlog was at €7.9 billion at March 31, 2026, up +2.6% compared to €7.7 billion at December 31, 2025 (including €1.2bn related to Great Sea Interconnector).Includes €1.2bn Great Sea Interconnector (under rescheduling).
    31 Dec 2025SourcedNexans (Q1 2026 financial information) · 2026-04-28Open the source → EUR bnNexans (Q1 2026 financial information) ↗ primaryAdjusted backlog was at €7.9 billion at March 31, 2026, up +2.6% compared to €7.7 billion at December 31, 2025 (including €1.2bn related to Great Sea Interconnector).

    Read from the sources Read from the source by an agent; quote matched mechanically against the fetched page; not yet reviewed by a person, 2026-09-24. Each value links the page it came from and quotes the sentence that carries it.

    Series pageDownload CSV

  • Lead time · USSwitchgear average lead time (Wood Mackenzie survey)SourcedWood Mackenzie (Mind the gap, opinion) · Q2 2025Open the source → weeksQ2 2025
    PeriodValueSource
    Q2 2025SourcedWood Mackenzie (Mind the gap, opinion) · 2025-10-15Open the source → weeksWood Mackenzie (Mind the gap, opinion) ↗ secondary reportPower transformer lead times also eased in Q2, falling by 10 weeks to an average of 128 weeks, while switchgear edged down to an average of 44 weeks.

    Read from the sources Read from the source by an agent; quote matched mechanically against the fetched page; not yet reviewed by a person, 2026-09-24. Each value links the page it came from and quotes the sentence that carries it.

    Series pageDownload CSV

Every series on every bottleneck — filter, compare and download.

02Why it holds things up

The unglamorous half of energisation. Cable makers’ order backlogs run far ahead of output, and switchgear waits are long if shorter than for transformers; neither responds quickly to a demand shock.

Part of the process · Energy, which takes years to loosen once somebody decides to.

03Severity

judged 2026-09-15 · a judgement, not a measurement

How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code → / 12

How few suppliers qualify
Estimate, not a measurementCable backlogs far ahead of output and long switchgear waits; neither answers a demand shock quickly.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
How hard to replace
Estimate, not a measurementCable backlogs far ahead of output and long switchgear waits; neither answers a demand shock quickly.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
Decision to new capacity
Estimate, not a measurementCable backlogs far ahead of output and long switchgear waits; neither answers a demand shock quickly.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
Can the buyer walk away
Estimate, not a measurementCable backlogs far ahead of output and long switchgear waits; neither answers a demand shock quickly.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3

Cable backlogs far ahead of output and long switchgear waits; neither answers a demand shock quickly.

04Who makes it

2 verified of 2 rows
OrganisationStepEvidence
PrysmianPRY IMMakes itVerified source ↗
NKTNKT DCMakes itVerified source ↗

05What it rests on, and what rests on it

each row quotes the page it rests on

Depended on by

  • Grid interconnection queues
    “May require modest upgrades (breakers) or reconstruction of several high-voltage transmission lines.”

    eta-publications.lbl.gov · primary source · LBNL (Feb 2026), on network upgrades a new generator triggers. A cost item in the queue, not a stated supply constraint.

  • Anthropic
    “supply chain risks with critical grid components, including transformers and circuit breakers.”

    www-cdn.anthropic.com · primary source · Circuit breakers are switchgear; cable is not named. A policy report, not its own suppliers.

A recorded dependency is a sentence, not a share, a volume or a contract. Walk it on a portfolio →

06Rules that govern it

No rule has been researched for this one yet.

Policy coverage is being built jurisdiction by jurisdiction.

07What would remove it

  • Superconducting transmission cableEstimate, not a measurementCity-scale links have run for years as demonstrations; no routine procurement path exists.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15Supporting source → · Prototype at meaningful scale

    Moves more power through existing rights of way, avoiding some new conventional cable entirely.

All science →

08Science pipeline

43 papers, preprints and grants collected, unreviewed
  1. Research40 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)+5 (Computed: Items first collected in the last 7 days whose publication or award date is within the last 30 days.) new
  2. Lab2 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  3. Pilot1 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  4. Early0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  5. Scale0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)

judged, with a citation claimed, no citationNumber: papers, preprints and grants the feeds collected — unreviewed

The full pipeline, by stage →

09Who could fund relief

  • Department of Energy Loan Programs OfficeDevelopment bank

    Lends at scale to energy projects that commercial lenders will not finance alone. It now operates as the Office of Energy Dominance Financing, under the authorities the Energy Policy Act of 2005 gave it.

    Development bank will not fund · Anything outside its mandate, however commercially sound. It is patient and cheap and narrow, in that order.

  • European Investment BankDevelopment bank

    The EU’s own bank, lending long-term for infrastructure, energy networks and industrial capacity that meets EU policy objectives.

  • KfWDevelopment bank

    Germany’s promotional bank, funding industrial transformation and energy infrastructure on behalf of the federal government.

  • Japan Bank for International CooperationExport credit

    Japan’s policy-based financial institution: lending, investment and guarantees that sit beside private banks rather than instead of them.

    Export credit will not fund · A project with no domestic content. The money follows the exporter, not the need, which is why it can build a plant on one continent and never on another.

A mandate covering the kind of asset that would relieve this row. Not a claim that anyone has funded one, and not advice.

10What has happened

Nothing recorded about this one yet.

Events are added when a source is read and accepted by hand.

11What this holds up

1 loop
  • Energyone turn: Months to years

    Worst judgement on this loop: How this is computedThe highest severity score among the bottlenecks recorded as gates on the loop.Method →Code →, judged 2026-09-15

A loop is one design, build and measure turn. Severity is a dated judgement on a 0–12 scale, not a measurement, and the judgements are not added together — the figure shown is the worst single one.

Discussion

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