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Material · Power, Grid & Superconductors · QA US RU GB FR

Liquid helium (He-4)

The only practical way to reach the temperatures superconducting magnets and some chip tools need. It cannot be manufactured.

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Severity
How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →
How hard it binds, 0 to 12
When it bites
Within 2 years
judged 2026-09-15
Evidence
5 of 6 verified
6 maker rows

EnergyAI & computeGases & chemicalsSemiconductorsWork on it: roles and trainingReport an error on GitHub

01Key numbers

dated, each linked to its source

Every series on every bottleneck — filter, compare and download.

02Why it holds things up

Helium is produced only as a by-product of a few natural gas fields with unusual composition, so supply is set by unrelated gas economics and by a handful of political jurisdictions.

Grade that ships · 5N liquid helium, dewar or ISO container, boil-off terms per contract.

Part of the process · Energy, which takes years to loosen once somebody decides to.

03Severity

judged 2026-09-15 · a judgement, not a measurement

How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code → / 12

How few suppliers qualify
Estimate, not a measurementQatar, the US and Russia; no substitute below 4 K. Recurring shortages, currently eased by new Qatari trains.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
How hard to replace
Estimate, not a measurementQatar, the US and Russia; no substitute below 4 K. Recurring shortages, currently eased by new Qatari trains.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
Decision to new capacity
Estimate, not a measurementQatar, the US and Russia; no substitute below 4 K. Recurring shortages, currently eased by new Qatari trains.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3
Can the buyer walk away
Estimate, not a measurementQatar, the US and Russia; no substitute below 4 K. Recurring shortages, currently eased by new Qatari trains.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 / 3

Qatar, the US and Russia; no substitute below 4 K. Recurring shortages, currently eased by new Qatari trains.

04How much, and where

world total 180 million m³ (2024, estimated)

What these figures count · helium extracted from natural gas. Read the stage before the number: this is mined output.

  • United States of AmericaSourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024, estimated by the sourceOpen the source → (2024, est.)

    How this is computedA place's annual production ÷ the published world total, same unit and year.Method →Code → of mined world output · reserves SourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024Open the source → · about How this is computedPublished reserves ÷ annual production, same place, unit and year.Method →Code → at this rate

  • QatarSourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024, estimated by the sourceOpen the source → (2024, est.)

    How this is computedA place's annual production ÷ the published world total, same unit and year.Method →Code → of mined world output

    USGS records Qatar reserves as “Large” rather than a figure.

  • RussiaSourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024, estimated by the sourceOpen the source → (2024, est.)

    How this is computedA place's annual production ÷ the published world total, same unit and year.Method →Code → of mined world output · reserves SourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024Open the source → · about How this is computedPublished reserves ÷ annual production, same place, unit and year.Method →Code → at this rate

  • AlgeriaSourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024, estimated by the sourceOpen the source → (2024, est.)

    How this is computedA place's annual production ÷ the published world total, same unit and year.Method →Code → of mined world output · reserves SourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024Open the source → · about How this is computedPublished reserves ÷ annual production, same place, unit and year.Method →Code → at this rate

  • CanadaSourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024, estimated by the sourceOpen the source → (2024, est.)

    How this is computedA place's annual production ÷ the published world total, same unit and year.Method →Code → of mined world output

  • ChinaSourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024, estimated by the sourceOpen the source → (2024, est.)

    How this is computedA place's annual production ÷ the published world total, same unit and year.Method →Code → of mined world output

  • PolandSourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024, estimated by the sourceOpen the source → (2024, est.)

    How this is computedA place's annual production ÷ the published world total, same unit and year.Method →Code → of mined world output · reserves SourcedUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · 2024Open the source → · about How this is computedPublished reserves ÷ annual production, same place, unit and year.Method →Code → at this rate

Concentration · How this is computedSum of the squares of each producer’s share of world output (0–1).Method →Code → on the Herfindahl index across 7 recorded producers, where 1.00 is a single supplier. This is arithmetic from the figures above, not the judgement shown under severity — the two are worth comparing.

USGS rounds the world total and lists some countries without a figure. Figures are read 2026-09-17 from the source ↗. Reserves are not resources: what is economic to extract, not what exists.

05The actual places

3 named so far
  • Cliffside FieldGas or oil field

    near Amarillo, Texas, United States of America · operator not recorded

    The United States Federal Helium System stored crude helium in the Bush Dome reservoir here. USGS reports it separately from helium extracted from natural gas: 13 million m³ withdrawn in 2024, against 50 million m³ of reserves, with the system sold out of Government hands in 2024.

    Source ↗

  • LaBargeGas or oil field

    south-western Wyoming, United States of America · operated by ExxonMobil

    ExxonMobil describes LaBarge as one of a very small number of gas fields with enough helium in the stream to justify extracting it — the company publishes the operation on its own site.

    Source ↗

  • Orenburg helium plantProcessing plant

    Orenburg oblast, Russia · operated by Gazprom

    Gazprom documents the Orenburg plant as where helium is separated from its gas. Russia is recorded by USGS at 17 million m³ of helium production in 2024 against 1,700 million m³ of reserves; this plant is the long-standing part of that.

    Source ↗

Named where a source names them. This is not every site that supplies this material — the list is as complete as the reading behind it, which is the same rule as every other row here.

06Who makes it

5 verified of 6 rows

1 of 1 unsourced rows have pages the sourcing engine found that nobody has checked yet.

OrganisationStepEvidence
QatarEnergyNo listing foundMine / extractVerified source ↗
ExxonMobilXOM USMine / extractVerified source ↗
GazpromGAZP RUMine / extractVerified source ↗
Air ProductsAPD USRefine
1 found, unchecked
LindeLIN USRefineVerified source ↗
Air LiquideAI FPRefineVerified source ↗

07What it rests on, and what rests on it

each row quotes the page it rests on

Depended on by

  • Leading-edge foundry capacity
    “Among the latest geopolitical uncertainties for the industry is a shortage of helium that could slow global production.”

    dw.com · secondary source · Chip production in general, not the leading edge only.

A recorded dependency is a sentence, not a share, a volume or a contract. Walk it on a portfolio →

08Rules that govern it

No rule has been researched for this one yet.

Policy coverage is being built jurisdiction by jurisdiction.

09What would remove it

No candidate relief has been written up for this one yet.

10Science pipeline

62 papers, preprints and grants collected, unreviewed
  1. Research51 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)+1 (Computed: Items first collected in the last 7 days whose publication or award date is within the last 30 days.) new
  2. Lab9 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  3. Pilot2 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  4. Early0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)
  5. Scale0 (Computed: Items per stage = papers, preprints and grants collected for the bottleneck whose relevance score is 2 or more, placed on a stage by the rule in lib/science.ts; judgements are counted separately.)

judged, with a citation claimed, no citationNumber: papers, preprints and grants the feeds collected — unreviewed

The full pipeline, by stage →

11Is there an alternative

one of these is a law, not a schedule
  • Any other coolant, below about 4 Knone known

    Physics — no alternative exists

    Below roughly 4 kelvin nothing else stays liquid. USGS states it plainly: nothing substitutes for helium in cryogenic applications below −429 °F. This is the one case on the site where the answer is a law rather than a schedule — no amount of money or time produces an alternative, so relief has to come from using less, recovering more, or finding more helium.

    Source ↗

  • High-temperature superconducting magnets that run warmerdemonstrated, not qualified

    Qualification — proving it for this use takes years · Capacity — not enough of it exists

    Where the helium is used to cool a superconductor rather than to reach the temperature for its own sake, a magnet that operates at higher temperature removes the need. USGS notes such superconductors are being developed for MRI. This displaces demand rather than substituting the material, and it is gated by the same REBCO tape supply the corpus already tracks — which is why it is a schedule, not a law.

    Source 1 ↗Source 2 ↗

An alternative existing is not the same as it being available. Physics is a law; qualification and capacity are schedules — and only one of those can be changed with money.

12What has happened

1 dated
  1. 2026-03-18
    TightensOutageQA IR

    The war that began in Iran in February triggers a helium shortage that could slow chip production.

    dw.com ↗secondary source

    The sentence that says so

    “Among the latest geopolitical uncertainties for the industry is a shortage of helium that could slow global production.”

All events →

13What this holds up

2 loops
  • Energyone turn: Months to years

    Worst judgement on this loop: How this is computedThe highest severity score among the bottlenecks recorded as gates on the loop.Method →Code →, judged 2026-09-15

  • Materials qualificationone turn: Years

    Worst judgement on this loop: How this is computedThe highest severity score among the bottlenecks recorded as gates on the loop.Method →Code →, judged 2026-09-15

A loop is one design, build and measure turn. Severity is a dated judgement on a 0–12 scale, not a measurement, and the judgements are not added together — the figure shown is the worst single one.

Discussion

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