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Scenarios

What if it fails?

Pick a scenario on the record, or build your own from a company (private ones included), a bottleneck or a country. You get what it hits, what lies downstream, which listed companies are exposed, and what the record says about recovery — one recorded step at a time (rule).

Taiwan is cut off

Why this is a live question: No accepted event; the record is the concentration on leading-edge foundry capacity

/scenarios?at=country:TW

Step one · How this is computedDirect hits: bottlenecks where the failed node is a maker, a part supplier or the location. Makers wholly inside it are lost; makers also operating elsewhere are partly affected; the rest remain. Downstream: every bottleneck that needs a hit one, transitively, through recorded rows. Exposed: holders of hit and downstream bottlenecks and companies a filing says need or sell into them.Method →Code → bottlenecks hit directly

BottleneckResultMakers lostPartly in itMakers remainingParts lost
Advanced packaging capacityNo recorded maker leftTSMC Advanced Packagingnone nonenone
Leading-edge foundry capacityOther recorded makers remainTSMCnoneHow this is computedDirect hits: bottlenecks where the failed node is a maker, a part supplier or the location. Makers wholly inside it are lost; makers also operating elsewhere are partly affected; the rest remain. Downstream: every bottleneck that needs a hit one, transitively, through recorded rows. Exposed: holders of hit and downstream bottlenecks and companies a filing says need or sell into them.Method →Code → Samsung Foundry, Intel Foundrynone
300 mm prime silicon wafersOther recorded makers remainGlobalWafersnoneHow this is computedDirect hits: bottlenecks where the failed node is a maker, a part supplier or the location. Makers wholly inside it are lost; makers also operating elsewhere are partly affected; the rest remain. Downstream: every bottleneck that needs a hit one, transitively, through recorded rows. Exposed: holders of hit and downstream bottlenecks and companies a filing says need or sell into them.Method →Code → Shin-Etsu Handotai, SUMCO, Siltronic, SK Siltronnone

Step two · How this is computedDirect hits: bottlenecks where the failed node is a maker, a part supplier or the location. Makers wholly inside it are lost; makers also operating elsewhere are partly affected; the rest remain. Downstream: every bottleneck that needs a hit one, transitively, through recorded rows. Exposed: holders of hit and downstream bottlenecks and companies a filing says need or sell into them.Method →Code → downstream through recorded inputs

  • 300 mm prime silicon wafers → High-bandwidth memory stacking yield

    An input to High-bandwidth memory stacking yield is disrupted. Whether it stops depends on inventory and substitution the corpus does not record.

    Evidence for each step
    • High-bandwidth memory stacking yield needs 300 mm prime silicon wafers300 mm Memory chip / DRAM / Flash(NAND)Primary source · DRAM in general; HBM is stacked DRAM.

Step three · How this is computedDirect hits: bottlenecks where the failed node is a maker, a part supplier or the location. Makers wholly inside it are lost; makers also operating elsewhere are partly affected; the rest remain. Downstream: every bottleneck that needs a hit one, transitively, through recorded rows. Exposed: holders of hit and downstream bottlenecks and companies a filing says need or sell into them.Method →Code → companies exposed, How this is computedOrganisations recorded on a bottleneck (maker, capacity holder or part supplier) whose shares, or a parent’s, trade on an exchange found in the SEC ticker file or OpenFIGI.Method →Code → with a listing

Exposure is a recorded relation, not a size, and not a direction: a remaining maker may gain as much as a dependent loses.

CompanyListingHow it is exposed
GlobalWafers6488 TTMaker lost · 300 mm prime silicon wafers
TSMC2330 TTMaker lost · Leading-edge foundry capacity
TSMC Advanced Packaging2330 TTvia TSMCMaker lost · Advanced packaging capacity
Intel FoundryINTC USvia IntelRemaining maker · Leading-edge foundry capacity
Samsung Foundry005930 KSvia Samsung ElectronicsRemaining maker · Leading-edge foundry capacity
Shin-Etsu HandotaiNo listing foundRemaining maker · 300 mm prime silicon wafers
SiltronicWAF GRRemaining maker · 300 mm prime silicon wafers
SK Siltron034730 KSvia SK Inc.Remaining maker · 300 mm prime silicon wafers
SUMCO3436 JPRemaining maker · 300 mm prime silicon wafers
MicronMU USHolds a downstream bottleneck · High-bandwidth memory stacking yield
Samsung Memory005930 KSvia Samsung ElectronicsHolds a downstream bottleneck · High-bandwidth memory stacking yield
SK hynix000660 KSHolds a downstream bottleneck · High-bandwidth memory stacking yield
Amazon Web ServicesAMZN USvia AmazonNeeds it (sourced) · Leading-edge foundry capacity sourceNeeds it (sourced) · High-bandwidth memory stacking yield source
AMDAMD USNeeds it (sourced) · Leading-edge foundry capacity source
BroadcomAVGO USNeeds it (sourced) · Leading-edge foundry capacity source
CoreWeaveCRWV USNeeds it (sourced) · Leading-edge foundry capacity source
GoogleGOOGL USvia AlphabetNeeds it (sourced) · High-bandwidth memory stacking yield source
MarvellMRVL USNeeds it (sourced) · Leading-edge foundry capacity source
MicrosoftMSFT USNeeds it (sourced) · Leading-edge foundry capacity sourceNeeds it (sourced) · High-bandwidth memory stacking yield source
NVIDIANVDA USNeeds it (sourced) · Advanced packaging capacity sourceNeeds it (sourced) · Leading-edge foundry capacity sourceNeeds it (sourced) · High-bandwidth memory stacking yield source
OpenAIPrivateNeeds it (sourced) · High-bandwidth memory stacking yield source
Applied MaterialsAMAT USSells into it (sourced) · Leading-edge foundry capacity sourceSells into it (sourced) · High-bandwidth memory stacking yield source
ASM InternationalASM NASells into it (sourced) · Leading-edge foundry capacity sourceSells into it (sourced) · High-bandwidth memory stacking yield source
Canon7751 JPSells into it (sourced) · Advanced packaging capacity sourceSells into it (sourced) · High-bandwidth memory stacking yield source
KLAKLAC USSells into it (sourced) · Advanced packaging capacity sourceSells into it (sourced) · Leading-edge foundry capacity sourceSells into it (sourced) · High-bandwidth memory stacking yield source
Lam ResearchLRCX USSells into it (sourced) · Leading-edge foundry capacity sourceSells into it (sourced) · High-bandwidth memory stacking yield source
Tokyo Electron8035 JPSells into it (sourced) · Advanced packaging capacity sourceSells into it (sourced) · Leading-edge foundry capacity sourceSells into it (sourced) · High-bandwidth memory stacking yield source

Step four · what the record says about recovery

No recovery date is computed: the corpus holds no measured lead-time series. What it holds is shown with its basis.

  • Advanced packaging capacity
    Lead-time test
    Estimate, not a measurementAccelerator output is set by CoWoS-class capacity, allocated ahead and still short of demand. The allocation is the scarce good.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 — decision to new capacity, a judged score in the assessment
    Relief time at this stage
    Estimate, not a measurementOrder-of-magnitude time from a decision to relief at this stage of the loop. Illustrative: chosen by hand, not taken from a measured lead-time dataset.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 (Compute, order of magnitude)
  • Leading-edge foundry capacity
    Lead-time test
    Estimate, not a measurementA handful of fabs at the newest node; new capacity costs tens of billions of dollars a year.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 — decision to new capacity, a judged score in the assessment
    Relief time at this stage
    Estimate, not a measurementOrder-of-magnitude time from a decision to relief at this stage of the loop. Illustrative: chosen by hand, not taken from a measured lead-time dataset.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 (Compute, order of magnitude)
  • 300 mm prime silicon wafers
    Lead-time test
    Estimate, not a measurementThe corpus tracks five producers of prime 300 mm wafers. Their product pages establish production, not global coverage, market share or customer contracts. Qualification constraints and demand from new fabs remain analyst hypotheses to investigate.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 — decision to new capacity, a judged score in the assessment
    Relief time at this stage
    Estimate, not a measurementOrder-of-magnitude time from a decision to relief at this stage of the loop. Illustrative: chosen by hand, not taken from a measured lead-time dataset.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 (Materials & tools, order of magnitude)
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