What if it fails?

Step one · 1How this is computedDirect hits: bottlenecks where the failed node is a maker, a part supplier or the location. Makers wholly inside it are lost; makers also operating elsewhere are partly affected; the rest remain. Downstream: every bottleneck that needs a hit one, transitively, through recorded rows. Exposed: holders of hit and downstream bottlenecks and companies a filing says need or sell into them.Method →Code →Check this number with Ask bottleneck hit directly

Step two · 2How this is computedDirect hits: bottlenecks where the failed node is a maker, a part supplier or the location. Makers wholly inside it are lost; makers also operating elsewhere are partly affected; the rest remain. Downstream: every bottleneck that needs a hit one, transitively, through recorded rows. Exposed: holders of hit and downstream bottlenecks and companies a filing says need or sell into them.Method →Code →Check this number with Ask downstream through recorded inputs

• Liquid helium (He-4) → Leading-edge foundry capacity

  An input to Leading-edge foundry capacity is disrupted. Whether it stops depends on inventory and substitution the corpus does not record.

  Evidence for each step

  • Leading-edge foundry capacity needs Liquid helium (He-4)Among the latest geopolitical uncertainties for the industry is a shortage of helium that could slow global production.Secondary source · Chip production in general, not the leading edge only.

• Liquid helium (He-4) → Leading-edge foundry capacity → Advanced packaging capacity

  An input to Advanced packaging capacity is disrupted. Whether it stops depends on inventory and substitution the corpus does not record.

  Evidence for each step

  • Leading-edge foundry capacity needs Liquid helium (He-4)Among the latest geopolitical uncertainties for the industry is a shortage of helium that could slow global production.Secondary source · Chip production in general, not the leading edge only.
  • Advanced packaging capacity needs Leading-edge foundry capacityso that various chiplets such as SoC and and high bandwidth memory (HBM) can be placed on itPrimary source · TSMC’s 2022 annual report on the CoWoS interposer. The SoC dies are the logic side.

Step three · 23How this is computedDirect hits: bottlenecks where the failed node is a maker, a part supplier or the location. Makers wholly inside it are lost; makers also operating elsewhere are partly affected; the rest remain. Downstream: every bottleneck that needs a hit one, transitively, through recorded rows. Exposed: holders of hit and downstream bottlenecks and companies a filing says need or sell into them.Method →Code →Check this number with Ask companies exposed, 22How this is computedOrganisations recorded on a bottleneck (maker, capacity holder or part supplier) whose shares, or a parent’s, trade on an exchange found in the SEC ticker file or OpenFIGI.Method →Code →Check this number with Ask with a listing

Exposure is a recorded relation, not a size, and not a direction: a remaining maker may gain as much as a dependent loses.

Step four · what the record says about recovery

No recovery date is computed: the corpus holds no measured lead-time series. What it holds is shown with its basis.

• Liquid helium (He-4)

  Lead-time test

  2/3Estimate, not a measurementQatar, the US and Russia; no substitute below 4 K. Recurring shortages, currently eased by new Qatari trains.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15Check this number with Ask — decision to new capacity, a judged score in the assessment

  Relief time at this stage

  YearsEstimate, not a measurementOrder-of-magnitude time from a decision to relief at this stage of the loop. Illustrative: chosen by hand, not taken from a measured lead-time dataset.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15Check this number with Ask (Energy, order of magnitude)

  Recorded world output in the failed country

  36%Sourcedpubs.usgs.gov · 2024Open the source →Check this number with Ask of helium extracted from natural gas (rule) — so about 64%How this is computedThe country’s recorded annual production divided by the recorded world total for the same year and unit, from config/substrata-quantities.ts (USGS).Method →Code →Check this number with Ask of recorded output sits elsewhere