What if it fails?

Step one · 1How this is computedDirect hits: bottlenecks where the failed node is a maker, a part supplier or the location. Makers wholly inside it are lost; makers also operating elsewhere are partly affected; the rest remain. Downstream: every bottleneck that needs a hit one, transitively, through recorded rows. Exposed: holders of hit and downstream bottlenecks and companies a filing says need or sell into them.Method →Code →Check this number with Ask bottleneck hit directly

Step two · 2How this is computedDirect hits: bottlenecks where the failed node is a maker, a part supplier or the location. Makers wholly inside it are lost; makers also operating elsewhere are partly affected; the rest remain. Downstream: every bottleneck that needs a hit one, transitively, through recorded rows. Exposed: holders of hit and downstream bottlenecks and companies a filing says need or sell into them.Method →Code →Check this number with Ask downstream through recorded inputs

• EUV lithography scanners → Leading-edge foundry capacity

  An input to Leading-edge foundry capacity is disrupted. Whether it stops depends on inventory and substitution the corpus does not record.

  Evidence for each step

  • Leading-edge foundry capacity needs EUV lithography scannersEUV technology enables TSMC to keep driving chip scaling as the shorter wavelength of EUV light is better able to print the nanometer-scale features of advanced technology designs.Primary source

• EUV lithography scanners → Leading-edge foundry capacity → Advanced packaging capacity

  An input to Advanced packaging capacity is disrupted. Whether it stops depends on inventory and substitution the corpus does not record.

  Evidence for each step

  • Leading-edge foundry capacity needs EUV lithography scannersEUV technology enables TSMC to keep driving chip scaling as the shorter wavelength of EUV light is better able to print the nanometer-scale features of advanced technology designs.Primary source
  • Advanced packaging capacity needs Leading-edge foundry capacityso that various chiplets such as SoC and and high bandwidth memory (HBM) can be placed on itPrimary source · TSMC’s 2022 annual report on the CoWoS interposer. The SoC dies are the logic side.

Step three · 20How this is computedDirect hits: bottlenecks where the failed node is a maker, a part supplier or the location. Makers wholly inside it are lost; makers also operating elsewhere are partly affected; the rest remain. Downstream: every bottleneck that needs a hit one, transitively, through recorded rows. Exposed: holders of hit and downstream bottlenecks and companies a filing says need or sell into them.Method →Code →Check this number with Ask companies exposed, 18How this is computedOrganisations recorded on a bottleneck (maker, capacity holder or part supplier) whose shares, or a parent’s, trade on an exchange found in the SEC ticker file or OpenFIGI.Method →Code →Check this number with Ask with a listing

Exposure is a recorded relation, not a size, and not a direction: a remaining maker may gain as much as a dependent loses.

Step four · what the record says about recovery

No recovery date is computed: the corpus holds no measured lead-time series. What it holds is shown with its basis.

• EUV lithography scanners

  Lead-time test

  3/3Estimate, not a measurementOne maker, a backlog in the tens of billions of euros, no second source in progress. The definition of a chokepoint.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15Check this number with Ask — decision to new capacity, a judged score in the assessment

  Relief time at this stage

  Quarters to yearsEstimate, not a measurementOrder-of-magnitude time from a decision to relief at this stage of the loop. Illustrative: chosen by hand, not taken from a measured lead-time dataset.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15Check this number with Ask (Compute, order of magnitude)