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Scenarios

What if it fails?

Pick a scenario on the record, or build your own from a company (private ones included), a bottleneck or a country. You get what it hits, what lies downstream, which listed companies are exposed, and what the record says about recovery — one recorded step at a time (rule).

Carl Zeiss SMT goes offline

Why this is a live question: 2026 update of the EU control list of dual-use items (2026-09-14)

/scenarios?at=company:carl-zeiss-smt

Step one · How this is computedDirect hits: bottlenecks where the failed node is a maker, a part supplier or the location. Makers wholly inside it are lost; makers also operating elsewhere are partly affected; the rest remain. Downstream: every bottleneck that needs a hit one, transitively, through recorded rows. Exposed: holders of hit and downstream bottlenecks and companies a filing says need or sell into them.Method →Code → bottlenecks hit directly

BottleneckResultMakers lostPartly in itMakers remainingParts lost
EUV lithography scannersLoses a critical part; makers remain but cannot ship without itnonenoneHow this is computedDirect hits: bottlenecks where the failed node is a maker, a part supplier or the location. Makers wholly inside it are lost; makers also operating elsewhere are partly affected; the rest remain. Downstream: every bottleneck that needs a hit one, transitively, through recorded rows. Exposed: holders of hit and downstream bottlenecks and companies a filing says need or sell into them.Method →Code → ASMLCarl Zeiss SMT
EUV projection opticsNo recorded maker leftCarl Zeiss SMTnone nonenone

Step two · How this is computedDirect hits: bottlenecks where the failed node is a maker, a part supplier or the location. Makers wholly inside it are lost; makers also operating elsewhere are partly affected; the rest remain. Downstream: every bottleneck that needs a hit one, transitively, through recorded rows. Exposed: holders of hit and downstream bottlenecks and companies a filing says need or sell into them.Method →Code → downstream through recorded inputs

  • EUV lithography scanners → Leading-edge foundry capacity

    An input to Leading-edge foundry capacity is disrupted. Whether it stops depends on inventory and substitution the corpus does not record.

    Evidence for each step
    • Leading-edge foundry capacity needs EUV lithography scannersEUV technology enables TSMC to keep driving chip scaling as the shorter wavelength of EUV light is better able to print the nanometer-scale features of advanced technology designs.Primary source

  • EUV lithography scanners → Leading-edge foundry capacity → Advanced packaging capacity

    An input to Advanced packaging capacity is disrupted. Whether it stops depends on inventory and substitution the corpus does not record.

    Evidence for each step
    • Leading-edge foundry capacity needs EUV lithography scannersEUV technology enables TSMC to keep driving chip scaling as the shorter wavelength of EUV light is better able to print the nanometer-scale features of advanced technology designs.Primary source
    • Advanced packaging capacity needs Leading-edge foundry capacityso that various chiplets such as SoC and and high bandwidth memory (HBM) can be placed on itPrimary source · TSMC’s 2022 annual report on the CoWoS interposer. The SoC dies are the logic side.

Step three · How this is computedDirect hits: bottlenecks where the failed node is a maker, a part supplier or the location. Makers wholly inside it are lost; makers also operating elsewhere are partly affected; the rest remain. Downstream: every bottleneck that needs a hit one, transitively, through recorded rows. Exposed: holders of hit and downstream bottlenecks and companies a filing says need or sell into them.Method →Code → companies exposed, How this is computedOrganisations recorded on a bottleneck (maker, capacity holder or part supplier) whose shares, or a parent’s, trade on an exchange found in the SEC ticker file or OpenFIGI.Method →Code → with a listing

Exposure is a recorded relation, not a size, and not a direction: a remaining maker may gain as much as a dependent loses.

CompanyListingHow it is exposed
Carl Zeiss SMTPrivateThe failed node · EUV lithography scannersThe failed node · EUV projection optics
ASMLASML NARemaining maker · EUV lithography scanners
TrumpfPrivatePart supplier to a hit bottleneck · EUV lithography scanners
Intel FoundryINTC USvia IntelHolds a downstream bottleneck · Leading-edge foundry capacity
Samsung Foundry005930 KSvia Samsung ElectronicsHolds a downstream bottleneck · Leading-edge foundry capacity
TSMC2330 TTHolds a downstream bottleneck · Leading-edge foundry capacity
TSMC Advanced Packaging2330 TTvia TSMCHolds a downstream bottleneck · Advanced packaging capacity
Amazon Web ServicesAMZN USvia AmazonNeeds it (sourced) · Leading-edge foundry capacity source
AMDAMD USNeeds it (sourced) · Leading-edge foundry capacity source
BroadcomAVGO USNeeds it (sourced) · Leading-edge foundry capacity source
CoreWeaveCRWV USNeeds it (sourced) · Leading-edge foundry capacity source
MarvellMRVL USNeeds it (sourced) · Leading-edge foundry capacity source
MicrosoftMSFT USNeeds it (sourced) · Leading-edge foundry capacity source
NVIDIANVDA USNeeds it (sourced) · Leading-edge foundry capacity sourceNeeds it (sourced) · Advanced packaging capacity source
Applied MaterialsAMAT USSells into it (sourced) · Leading-edge foundry capacity source
ASM InternationalASM NASells into it (sourced) · Leading-edge foundry capacity source
Canon7751 JPSells into it (sourced) · Advanced packaging capacity source
KLAKLAC USSells into it (sourced) · Leading-edge foundry capacity sourceSells into it (sourced) · Advanced packaging capacity source
Lam ResearchLRCX USSells into it (sourced) · Leading-edge foundry capacity source
Tokyo Electron8035 JPSells into it (sourced) · Leading-edge foundry capacity sourceSells into it (sourced) · Advanced packaging capacity source

Step four · what the record says about recovery

No recovery date is computed: the corpus holds no measured lead-time series. What it holds is shown with its basis.

  • EUV lithography scanners
    Lead-time test
    Estimate, not a measurementOne maker, a backlog in the tens of billions of euros, no second source in progress. The definition of a chokepoint.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 — decision to new capacity, a judged score in the assessment
    Relief time at this stage
    Estimate, not a measurementOrder-of-magnitude time from a decision to relief at this stage of the loop. Illustrative: chosen by hand, not taken from a measured lead-time dataset.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 (Compute, order of magnitude)
  • EUV projection optics
    Lead-time test
    Estimate, not a measurementOne optics maker inside the one scanner maker. The constraint is know-how, and it does not copy.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 — decision to new capacity, a judged score in the assessment
    Relief time at this stage
    Estimate, not a measurementOrder-of-magnitude time from a decision to relief at this stage of the loop. Illustrative: chosen by hand, not taken from a measured lead-time dataset.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 (Compute, order of magnitude)
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