Bottlenecks

As JSON →

The machines, materials, power, permits and people that decide how fast AI, energy and robots can grow — each in one plain sentence, with how hard it binds, who makes it and how well that is sourced. Start with the tightest, or jump to a stage.

Mapped: How this is computedCount of rows in the bottleneck corpus: every material plus every non-material chokepoint.Method →Code →; across How this is computedBottlenecks on that stage of the loop, and how many of them have every producer row sourced.Method →Code → stages
Binding now: How this is computedCount of bottlenecks whose assessed horizon is "now".Method →Code →; judged to be the constraint today
Maker rows sourced: How this is computedProducer rows counted by verification state from the corpus: sourced (an accepted primary source is linked) or unverified (none yet). Unchecked pages: open rows in the producer-sourcing queue, counted live from the database.Method →Code →; How this is computedProducer rows counted by verification state from the corpus: sourced (an accepted primary source is linked) or unverified (none yet). Unchecked pages: open rows in the producer-sourcing queue, counted live from the database.Method →Code → still unverified
Countries: How this is computedNumber of distinct country codes on the rows being counted (makers, or rules).Method →Code →; where the mapped makers operate

Refine by technology, industry, stage or evidence · 19 matches

Bottleneck	Where	Makers	Severity	When it bites	Evidence
ComputeHow this is computedBottlenecks on that stage of the loop, and how many of them have every producer row sourced.Method →Code →takes Estimate, not a measurementOrder-of-magnitude time from a decision to relief at this stage of the loop. Illustrative: chosen by hand, not taken from a measured lead-time dataset.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 to loosen
EUV lithography scanners The machines that print the finest circuit patterns. One company on earth builds them.	NL	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Now	Verified
EUV projection optics The mirrors inside those machines, polished flatter than anything else made. One supplier has ever achieved it.	DE	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Now	Verified
Photoresist formulation The light-sensitive chemistry that turns a projected pattern into a circuit. Overwhelmingly Japanese, and qualified factory by factory.	JP	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Within 2 years	Verified
Advanced packaging capacity Assembling several chips into one AI accelerator. How many exist is set here, not at the wafer.	TW KR US	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Now	Verified
Leading-edge foundry capacity Factories that can make chips at the newest generation. A handful exist, and the leader spends tens of billions of dollars a year adding more.	TW KR US	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Now	Verified
High-bandwidth memory stacking yield Stacking memory chips next to a processor without breaking them. Three companies can do it at volume.	KR US	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Now	Verified
EnergyHow this is computedBottlenecks on that stage of the loop, and how many of them have every producer row sourced.Method →Code →takes Estimate, not a measurementOrder-of-magnitude time from a decision to relief at this stage of the loop. Illustrative: chosen by hand, not taken from a measured lead-time dataset.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 to loosen
Grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES) The specially grown steel inside a large power transformer. Few mills can make it, and a new mill takes years.	JP KR DE US CN PL	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Now	Verified
High-voltage cable and switchgear The cables and switches that move power at high voltage. Cable order books run far ahead of output, and switchgear waits are long.	DE IT KR	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Now	Verified
Large power transformer slots The big transformers a data centre needs to take grid power. Ordering one now means waiting more than two years.	KR DE JP US	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Now	Verified
Heavy-duty gas turbine order books The fastest way to add firm power at scale. The largest maker’s order book runs years ahead of what it can build.	US DE	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Now	Verified
Two-phase dielectric immersion coolant An engineered liquid that servers are submerged in, which boils to carry heat away. The main maker has left the business.	US BE JP	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Within 2 years	Verified
Materials & toolsHow this is computedBottlenecks on that stage of the loop, and how many of them have every producer row sourced.Method →Code →takes Estimate, not a measurementOrder-of-magnitude time from a decision to relief at this stage of the loop. Illustrative: chosen by hand, not taken from a measured lead-time dataset.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 to loosen
300 mm prime silicon wafers The polished silicon discs most chips are built on, made by a handful of companies.	JP TW DE KR	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Within 2 years	Verified
Ruthenium, sputtering and ALD grade A rare metal being adopted for the wiring inside advanced chips. It comes out of the ground only alongside platinum.	ZA RU DE GB BE JP	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Within 2 years	Verified
Electronic-grade polysilicon Silicon purified to eleven nines, the raw material every silicon wafer starts from.	DE US JP MY KR	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Later	Verified
High-purity tin, EUV droplet grade Ultra-pure tin droplets, vaporised by a laser to make the light that prints the most advanced chips.	CN PE ID MY US CA DE	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Later	Verified
Silicon carbide substrate, 200 mm semi-insulating A harder-than-silicon crystal used where power and heat are high, such as chargers, motors and radar.	US KR JP CN	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Later	Verified
CVD synthetic diamond heat spreader Laboratory-grown diamond used to pull heat out of the hottest chips. Nothing conducts heat better.	GB IE US DE JP	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Later	Verified
ActuationHow this is computedBottlenecks on that stage of the loop, and how many of them have every producer row sourced.Method →Code →takes Estimate, not a measurementOrder-of-magnitude time from a decision to relief at this stage of the loop. Illustrative: chosen by hand, not taken from a measured lead-time dataset.By Substrata, open to challenge · 2026-09-15 to loosen
Precision reduction drives The gearboxes that let a robot joint move precisely and hold a load. A few Japanese firms set what is possible.	JP	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Within 2 years	Verified
Robot-grade encoders and force sensors The senses of a robot: what tells it where its joint is and how hard it is pushing.	JP DE	How this is computedCount of (bottleneck, producer) pairs across every material in the corpus.Method →Code →	How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →	Later	Verified

19 of 33

What these columns mean

Severity: Four questions, each scored 0 to 3: how few suppliers qualify, how hard it is to replace, how long new capacity takes, and whether the buyer can walk away. Higher is worse for progress. Judged by hand and dated on every page.
When it bites: A judgement about when this constraint is expected to be the one holding things up.
Evidence: Verified means a person opened a source that says so and the link is on the page. Source found means an automated search located a page that appears to say so and nobody has read it yet. Unverified means neither. Only verified rows are findings.
Makers: How many organisations are mapped as making this, and how much of that list is verified. A single node — a machine, a queue, a skill — has no maker list.