For industry teams

The constraints on your plan: how hard they bind, how long they last.

Bottleneck board · Lead times · What changed · Science pipeline · Site data Late

01The bottleneck board

The constraints judged to bind hardest right now, and which of them an event this month moved.

EUV lithography scannersHow this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →Verified
The machines that print the finest circuit patterns. One company on earth builds them.
EUV projection opticsHow this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →Verified
The mirrors inside those machines, polished flatter than anything else made. One supplier has ever achieved it.
Advanced packaging capacityHow this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →Verified
Assembling several chips into one AI accelerator. How many exist is set here, not at the wafer.
Leading-edge foundry capacityHow this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →Verified
Factories that can make chips at the newest generation. A handful exist, and the leader spends tens of billions of dollars a year adding more.
Grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES)How this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →Verified
The specially grown steel inside a large power transformer. Few mills can make it, and a new mill takes years.
High-voltage cable and switchgearHow this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →Verified
The cables and switches that move power at high voltage. Cable order books run far ahead of output, and switchgear waits are long.
Large power transformer slotsHow this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →Verified
The big transformers a data centre needs to take grid power. Ordering one now means waiting more than two years.
Crucible-grade high-purity quartz sandHow this is computedSum of four judged scores, each 0–3: concentration + substitution + lead time + inelasticity.Method →Code →6 of 7 verified
An unusually pure sand used to line the crucibles that grow silicon crystals. Most of it comes from one place on earth.

Now · ranked by severity · judged 2026-09-15

Every bottleneck, filterable by technology and stage →

02Lead times, backlogs and queues

How long an order waits: the dated, sourced numbers behind each ‘years-long’ claim.

Gas Power equipment backlog + slot reservation agreementsBacklog · company: GE Vernova · Heavy-duty gas turbine order books
SourcedGE Vernova (Q2 2026 earnings release, SEC 8-K Ex.99)Open the source → GW · 30 Jun 2026How this is computedThe latest value in a series minus the value before it, divided by the earlier value, same series and unit.100 (31 Mar 2026) → 116 (30 Jun 2026).Method →Code → vs 31 Mar 2026 · tightens
Prysmian Transmission backlogBacklog · company: Prysmian · High-voltage cable and switchgear
SourcedPrysmian (Q2/H1 2026 results press release)Open the source → EUR bn · 30 Jun 2026How this is computedThe latest value in a series minus the value before it, divided by the earlier value, same series and unit.17 (31 Mar 2026) → 17 (30 Jun 2026).Method →Code → vs 31 Mar 2026 · flat
Typical/median time from interconnection request to commercial operation (projects built that year)Lead time · US · Grid interconnection queues
SourcedLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Queued Up, 2026 edition)Open the source → months · 2025How this is computedThe latest value in a series minus the value before it, divided by the earlier value, same series and unit.55 (2024) → 61 (2025).Method →Code → vs 2024 · tightens
Power transformer average lead time (Wood Mackenzie survey)Lead time · US · Large power transformer slots
SourcedWood Mackenzie (Mind the gap, opinion)Open the source → weeks · Q2 2025How this is computedThe latest value in a series minus the value before it, divided by the earlier value, same series and unit.120 (2024) → 128 (Q2 2025).Method →Code → vs 2024 · tightens
Gas Services order backlogBacklog · company: Siemens Energy (Gas Services) · Heavy-duty gas turbine order books
SourcedSiemens Energy (Earnings Release Q3 FY2026)Open the source → EUR bn · 30 Jun 2026How this is computedThe latest value in a series minus the value before it, divided by the earlier value, same series and unit.66 (31 Mar 2026) → 73 (30 Jun 2026).Method →Code → vs 31 Mar 2026 · tightens
Gas Power equipment backlog (firm orders)Backlog · company: GE Vernova · Heavy-duty gas turbine order books
SourcedGE Vernova (Q2 2026 earnings release, SEC 8-K Ex.99)Open the source → GW · 30 Jun 2026How this is computedThe latest value in a series minus the value before it, divided by the earlier value, same series and unit.44 (31 Mar 2026) → 53 (30 Jun 2026).Method →Code → vs 31 Mar 2026 · tightens
Gas turbine slot reservation agreements (not in backlog)Backlog · company: GE Vernova · Heavy-duty gas turbine order books
SourcedGE Vernova (Q2 2026 earnings release, SEC 8-K Ex.99)Open the source → GW · 30 Jun 2026How this is computedThe latest value in a series minus the value before it, divided by the earlier value, same series and unit.56 (31 Mar 2026) → 63 (30 Jun 2026).Method →Code → vs 31 Mar 2026 · tightens
Siemens Energy Grid Technologies order backlogBacklog · company: Siemens Energy (Grid Technologies) · High-voltage cable and switchgear
SourcedSiemens Energy (Earnings Release Q3 FY2026)Open the source → EUR bn · 30 Jun 2026How this is computedThe latest value in a series minus the value before it, divided by the earlier value, same series and unit.49 (31 Mar 2026) → 51 (30 Jun 2026).Method →Code → vs 31 Mar 2026 · tightens

Every series, with charts and CSV →

03What changed

Capacity, outages, rules and milestones on the bottlenecks, newest first, each with its source.

2026-09-14
TightensPolicyEU
The EU updates its dual-use control list to add atomic layer deposition equipment for molybdenum and ruthenium.
Ruthenium, sputtering and ALD grade
policy.trade.ec.europa.eu ↗official source
The sentence that says so
“Specifically, this update of the EU control list provides for the addition of new dual-use items, including: Semiconductor manufacturing and testing equipment and materials (e.g. Atomic Layer Deposition equipment for molybdenum and Ruthenium, equipment for the development and the inspection of Extreme Ultra-Violet masks and reticles, and single wafer cleaning equipment)”
2026-09-14
NeutralCapacityCN
ArcelorMittal and China Oriental open a 1.8 Mt/yr electrical steel joint venture in Changzhou; the first phase is non-oriented.
Grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES)
gmk.center ↗secondary source
The sentence that says so
“The total production capacity of the facility in Changzhou will be 1.8 million tonnes of high-quality electrical steel sheets.”
2026-09-13
LoosensMilestoneCN MY
Shanghai Electric wins its first overseas heavy-duty gas turbine order, 500 MW in Malaysia.
Heavy-duty gas turbine order books
prnewswire.com ↗official source
The sentence that says so
“Shanghai Electric Secures First Overseas Heavy-Duty Gas Turbine Order for 500 MW Malaysian Project / Shanghai Electric (SEHK: 02727, SSE: 601727) has achieved a milestone in the high-end overseas energy sector by securing the contract for Unit 3 of the Sarawak Samalaju Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) project in Malaysia.”
2026-09-10
TightensPolicyCN
China’s November export controls will test whether rare-earth refining and recycling outside it can scale.
Dysprosium metal Didymium (Nd-Pr) metal, magnet feed Rare-earth magnet sintering
fastmarkets.com ↗secondary source
The sentence that says so
“For decades, China has been the dominant supplier of the rare earths required to produce sintered neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets: neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr), dysprosium and terbium.”
2026-09-05
TightensCapacityUS DE
Wacker’s 600-worker Charleston polysilicon plant may close after a US trade measure drove off both its customers.
Electronic-grade polysilicon
WhoWacker Chemie
arkansasonline.com ↗secondary source
The sentence that says so
“The move follows a White House proclamation last month that seeks to incentivize purchases of American polysilicon, the sources said, declining to be named because the matter was not public.”

Every event →

04What could relieve them

Papers, preprints and grants collected this week against each bottleneck — unreviewed, sorted by stage on the pipeline.

Science feeds read 24m ago · Fresh

Paper2026-10-13Applied and Computational EngineeringSourcedOpenAlex, as fetchedOpen the source → citationsAdvanced packaging capacity
Network-on-Chip Technology for Chiplet Integration Architecture
In today's era, the marginal benefits of transistor scaling are continuously decreasing, and Chiplet heterogeneous integration has become the mainstream path for scaling AI chip computing power. Meanwhile, on-chip interconnect performance is increasingly becoming the key factor…
Fundamental research · No laboratory or pilot wording.From OpenAlex · not yet reviewedDOI
Paper2026-10-13The KSFM Journal of Fluid MachinerySourcedOpenAlex, as fetchedOpen the source → citationsHeavy-duty gas turbine order books
Evaluation of Sealing and Film-Cooling Performance According to Coolant Injection Conditions in the Secondary Flow Path of an F-Class Gas Turbine Combustor
Fundamental research · No laboratory or pilot wording.From OpenAlex · not yet reviewedDOI
Paper2026-10-13Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)SourcedOpenAlex, as fetchedOpen the source → citationsAdvanced packaging capacity
MICROSOFT MAIA 300 // N2P MULTI-CHIPLET // 288GB HBM4.
MICROSOFT MAIA 300 // N2P MULTI-CHIPLET // 288GB HBM4.
Fundamental research · No laboratory or pilot wording.From OpenAlex · not yet reviewedDOI
Paper2026-10-12Journal of Manufacturing and Materials ProcessingSourcedOpenAlex, as fetchedOpen the source → citationsLaser powder-bed fusion machines
Development of New Al-Ca-Cu-Mn-Zr Alloys for Laser Powder Bed Fusion
The limited thermal stability of conventional aluminium alloys at elevated temperatures restricts their application in laser powder bed fusion (LPBF). In this study, a novel Al6Ca3Cu1.8Mn0.4Zr (wt.%) alloy was developed for improved thermal stability via stable intermetallic…
National University of Science and TechnologyMoscow Polytechnic UniversityBelgorod National Research University
Fundamental research · No laboratory or pilot wording.From OpenAlex · not yet reviewedDOI
Paper2026-10-12Scientific Bulletin of Naval AcademySourcedOpenAlex, as fetchedOpen the source → citationsHeavy-duty gas turbine order books
Gas Turbine Propulsion Systems for Naval Vessels: Energy Flow Calculation Methodology and HighPressure Rotor CFD Simulation
This paper addresses the modernization of naval propulsion systems through the adoption of gas turbine technology, with emphasis on thermodynamic calculation methodology and rotor flow simulation. The study is centred on the Rolls Royce gas turbine, employed in naval propulsion…
Fundamental research · No laboratory or pilot wording.From OpenAlex · not yet reviewedDOI PDF
Paper2026-10-12International Journal of Damage MechanicsSourcedOpenAlex, as fetchedOpen the source → citationsHeavy-duty gas turbine order books
Failure analysis of a service-degraded gas turbine combustor liner: A metallurgical evaluation
A comprehensive destructive analysis was conducted on a rejected inner liner segment from a V2500-5 aero-engine, a critical component made from B1900 nickel-based superalloy. The investigation combined field emission scanning electron microscopy–energy-dispersive X-ray…
Materials and Energy Research CenterTarbiat Modares UniversityIslamic Azad University, KarajIran University of Science and Technology
Fundamental research · No laboratory or pilot wording.From OpenAlex · not yet reviewedDOI

The science pipeline, by stage →